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Prognostic factors and nomogram prediction of survival probability in primary spinal cord astrocytoma patients

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机构: [1]Capital Med Univ, Xuanwu Hosp, China Int Neurosci Inst CHINA INI, Dept Neurosurg,Div Spine, Beijing, Peoples R China [2]Capital Med Univ, Res Ctr Spine & Spinal Cord, Beijing Inst Brain Disorders, Beijing, Peoples R China [3]Capital Med Univ, Xuanwu Hosp, China Int Neurosci Inst CHINA INI, Lab Spinal Cord Injury & Funct Reconstruct, Beijing, Peoples R China
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关键词: spinal cord glioma astrocytoma SEER Surveillance Epidemiology and End Results nomogram real-world study oncology

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OBJECTIVE Knowledge on the management of spinal cord astrocytoma (SCA) remains scarce. Here, the authors constructed and validated a predictive nomogram, often used for individualized prognosis and evaluations, to estimate cancer-specific survival (CSS) and overall survival (OS) for patients with SCA. METHODS Epidemiological characteristics were compared between low-grade SCA (LGSCA) and high-grade SCA (HGSCA) patients from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database. Risk factors for CSS and OS were determined using univariate and multivariate analyses and Kaplan-Meier curves. A nomogram was developed to individually predict the 3-, 5-, and 10-year CSS and OS rates. The clinical usefulness of the nomogram was assessed using calibration plots, the concordance index (C-index), and time-dependent receiver operating characteristic curves. RESULTS A total of 468 LGSCA and 165 HGSCA patients were eligible for inclusion. LGSCA and HGSCA patients demonstrated differences in age, tumor extension, insurance status, adjuvant treatment, and survival. Multivariate analysis demonstrated that in the LGSCA group, tumor extension, surgery type, and adjuvant therapy were individually associated with CSS. The distance of tumor extension and WHO grade were individually associated with CSS in the HGSCA group. The prognostic variables were further demonstrated using the Kaplan-Meier method, which also suggested that adjuvant treatment provided no advantage to HGSCA patients. A nomogram was constructed, and the C-index for CSS was 0.84 by internal validation (95% CI 0.79-0.90). CONCLUSIONS This research suggests that the distance of tumor extension, type of surgery, and adjuvant therapy are significant risk factors for CSS using multivariate analysis in the LGSCA group. Adjuvant treatment provided no advan- tages for CSS or OS in patients with HGSCAs. The nomogram may be clinically useful to healthcare providers.

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出版当年[2019]版:
大类 | 3 区 医学
小类 | 3 区 临床神经病学 3 区 外科
最新[2023]版:
大类 | 2 区 医学
小类 | 2 区 外科 3 区 临床神经病学
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出版当年[2018]版:
Q1 SURGERY Q2 CLINICAL NEUROLOGY
最新[2023]版:
Q1 SURGERY Q2 CLINICAL NEUROLOGY

影响因子: 最新[2023版] 最新五年平均 出版当年[2018版] 出版当年五年平均 出版前一年[2017版] 出版后一年[2019版]

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第一作者机构: [1]Capital Med Univ, Xuanwu Hosp, China Int Neurosci Inst CHINA INI, Dept Neurosurg,Div Spine, Beijing, Peoples R China [2]Capital Med Univ, Res Ctr Spine & Spinal Cord, Beijing Inst Brain Disorders, Beijing, Peoples R China [3]Capital Med Univ, Xuanwu Hosp, China Int Neurosci Inst CHINA INI, Lab Spinal Cord Injury & Funct Reconstruct, Beijing, Peoples R China
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通讯机构: [1]Capital Med Univ, Xuanwu Hosp, China Int Neurosci Inst CHINA INI, Dept Neurosurg,Div Spine, Beijing, Peoples R China [2]Capital Med Univ, Res Ctr Spine & Spinal Cord, Beijing Inst Brain Disorders, Beijing, Peoples R China [3]Capital Med Univ, Xuanwu Hosp, China Int Neurosci Inst CHINA INI, Lab Spinal Cord Injury & Funct Reconstruct, Beijing, Peoples R China [*1]Capital Med Univ, Xuanwu Hosp, China Int Neurosci Inst CHINA INI, Beijing, Peoples R China
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