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Development and Validation of a Predictive Nomogram for Possible REM Sleep Behavior Disorders

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机构: [1]Department of Neurology, National Clinical Research Center for Geriatric Diseases, Xuanwu Hospital of Capital Medical University, Beijing, China. [2]Institute of Genetics and Developmental Biology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China. [3]Department of Neurobiology, National Clinical Research Center for Geriatric Diseases, Xuanwu Hospital of Capital Medical University, Beijing, China. [4]Department of Neurology, Fujian Key Laboratory of Molecular Neurology, Fujian Medical University Union Hospital, Institute of Neuroscience, Fujian Medical University, Fuzhou, China. [5]The Xinjiekou Community Health Service Center, Beijing, China. [6]The Qinglonghu Community Health Service Center, Beijing, China. [7]Department of Geriatric Disease, Peking University Shenzhen Hospital, Shenzhen, China.
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关键词: REM sleep behavior disorder (RBD) LASSO nomogram decision curve analysis (DCA) predictive model

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To develop and validate a predictive nomogram for idiopathic rapid eye movement (REM) sleep behavior disorder (RBD) in a community population in Beijing, China.Based on the validated RBD questionnaire-Hong Kong (RBDQ-HK), we identified 78 individuals with possible RBD (pRBD) in 1,030 community residents from two communities in Beijing. The least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) regression was applied to identify candidate features and develop the nomogram. Internal validation was performed using bootstrap resampling. The discrimination of the nomogram was evaluated using the area under the curve (AUC) of the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve, and the predictive accuracy was assessed via a calibration curve. Decision curve analysis (DCA) was performed to evaluate the clinical value of the model.From 31 potential predictors, 7 variables were identified as the independent predictive factors and assembled into the nomogram: family history of Parkinson's disease (PD) or dementia [odds ratio (OR), 4.59; 95% confidence interval (CI), 1.35-14.45; p = 0.011], smoking (OR, 3.24; 95% CI, 1.84-5.81; p < 0.001), physical activity (≥4 times/week) (OR, 0.23; 95% CI, 0.12-0.42; p < 0.001), exposure to pesticides (OR, 3.73; 95%CI, 2.08-6.65; p < 0.001), constipation (OR, 6.25; 95% CI, 3.58-11.07; p < 0.001), depression (OR, 3.66; 95% CI, 1.96-6.75; p < 0.001), and daytime somnolence (OR, 3.28; 95% CI, 1.65-6.38; p = 0.001). The nomogram displayed good discrimination, with original AUC of 0.885 (95% CI, 0.845-0.925), while the bias-corrected concordance index (C-index) with 1,000 bootstraps was 0.876. The calibration curve and DCA indicated the high accuracy and clinical usefulness of the nomogram.This study proposed an effective nomogram with potential application in the individualized prediction for pRBD.Copyright © 2022 Lai, Li, Hu, Li, Xu, Zhu, He, Weng, Chen, Yu, Li, Song, Wang, Wang, Li, Kang, Li, Xu, Deng, Ye and Wang.

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出版当年[2021]版:
大类 | 3 区 医学
小类 | 3 区 临床神经病学 3 区 神经科学
最新[2023]版:
大类 | 3 区 医学
小类 | 3 区 临床神经病学 3 区 神经科学
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出版当年[2020]版:
Q2 NEUROSCIENCES Q2 CLINICAL NEUROLOGY
最新[2023]版:
Q2 CLINICAL NEUROLOGY Q3 NEUROSCIENCES

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第一作者机构: [1]Department of Neurology, National Clinical Research Center for Geriatric Diseases, Xuanwu Hospital of Capital Medical University, Beijing, China.
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