Retrospective case-control study.Proximal junctional kyphosis (PJK) is a postoperative complication involving the proximal segments which is commonly seen in patients with degenerative spine diseases (DSD). The purpose of the present study was to identify predictive factors for postoperative PJK in elderly patients with DSD.We reviewed elderly patients with DSD who underwent thoracolumbar fusion involving no less than 3 levels. Patients who developed PJK were propensity score-matched with patients with DSD who received the same procedure but did not develop PJK. Demographic characteristics, sagittal vertical axis (SVA), computed tomography (CT) value (Hounsfield unit), and paraspinal muscle parameters were compared between PJK and non-PJK groups.Eighty-three PJK and non-PJK patients were selected by propensity score matching for age, sex, history of smoking, body mass index, number of fused segments, and upper instrumented vertebra (UIV) location. SVA showed no significant difference between the two groups. In PJK group, fatty infiltration (FI) in erector spinae and multifidus was significantly greater, while the relative cross-sectional area (rCSA) of erector spinae was significantly smaller than that in non-PJK group. CT value was significantly lower in PJK group. Lower erector spinae rCSA and CT value of the UIV, higher erector spinae FI and multifidus FI were identified as predictors of postoperative PJK.PJK is a common complication in older patients with DSD. Paraspinal muscle degeneration and low bone mineral density of the UIV are predictors of PJK. Protective measures targeting paraspinal muscles and the UIV may help prevent postoperative PJK.© 2022. The Author(s).