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Dynamic Nomogram for Predicting the Risk of Perioperative Neurocognitive Disorders in Adults

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机构: [1]From the Department of Anesthesiology, Southwest Hospital, Third Military Medical University, Chongqing, China. [2]Department of Anesthesiology, Xuan Wu Hospital, Capital Medical University, Beijing, China. [3]Department of Anesthesiology, West China Hospital of Sichuan University, Chengdu, China. [4]Electronic Information Technology Research Institute, Chongqing Institute of Green and Intelligent Technology, Chinese Academy of Science, Chongqing, China.
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Simple and rapid tools for screening high-risk patients for perioperative neurocognitive disorders (PNDs) are urgently needed to improve patient outcomes. We developed an online tool with machine-learning algorithms using routine variables based on multicenter data.The entire dataset was composed of 49,768 surgical patients from 3 representative academic hospitals in China. Surgical patients older than 45 years, those undergoing general anesthesia, and those without a history of PND were enrolled. When the patient's discharge diagnosis was PND, the patient was in the PND group. Patients in the non-PND group were randomly extracted from the big data platform according to the surgical type, age, and source of data in the PND group with a ratio of 3:1. After data preprocessing and feature selection, general linear model (GLM), artificial neural network (ANN), and naive Bayes (NB) were used for model development and evaluation. Model performance was evaluated by the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (ROCAUC), the area under the precision-recall curve (PRAUC), the Brier score, the index of prediction accuracy (IPA), sensitivity, specificity, etc. The model was also externally validated on the multiparameter intelligent monitoring in intensive care (MIMIC) Ⅳ database. Afterward, we developed an online visualization tool to preoperatively predict patients' risk of developing PND based on the models with the best performance.A total of 1051 patients (242 PND and 809 non-PND) and 2884 patients (6.2% patients with PND) were analyzed on multicenter data (model development, test [internal validation], external validation-1) and MIMIC Ⅳ dataset (external validation-2). The model performance based on GLM was much better than that based on ANN and NB. The best-performing GLM model on validation-1 dataset achieved ROCAUC (0.874; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.833-0.915), PRAUC (0.685; 95% CI, 0.584-0.786), sensitivity (72.6%; 95% CI, 61.4%-81.5%), specificity (84.4%; 95% CI, 79.3%-88.4%), Brier score (0.131), and IPA (44.7%), and of which the ROCAUC (0.761, 95% CI, 0.712-0.809), the PRAUC (0.475, 95% CI, 0.370-0.581), Brier score (0.053), and IPA (76.8%) on validation-2 dataset. Afterward, we developed an online tool (https://pnd-predictive-model-dynnom.shinyapps.io/ DynNomapp/) with 10 routine variables for preoperatively screening high-risk patients.We developed a simple and rapid online tool to preoperatively screen patients' risk of PND using GLM based on multicenter data, which may help medical staff's decision-making regarding perioperative management strategies to improve patient outcomes.Copyright © 2023 The Author(s). Published by Wolters Kluwer Health, Inc. on behalf of the International Anesthesia Research Society.

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出版当年[2022]版:
大类 | 2 区 医学
小类 | 2 区 麻醉学
最新[2023]版:
大类 | 2 区 医学
小类 | 2 区 麻醉学
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出版当年[2021]版:
Q1 ANESTHESIOLOGY
最新[2023]版:
Q1 ANESTHESIOLOGY

影响因子: 最新[2023版] 最新五年平均 出版当年[2021版] 出版当年五年平均 出版前一年[2020版] 出版后一年[2022版]

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第一作者机构: [1]From the Department of Anesthesiology, Southwest Hospital, Third Military Medical University, Chongqing, China.
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通讯机构: [1]From the Department of Anesthesiology, Southwest Hospital, Third Military Medical University, Chongqing, China. [*1]Department of Anesthesiology, Southwest Hospital, Third Military Medical University, No. 30, Gaotanyan St, Shapingba District, Chongqing 400038, China.
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