Background. The mortality rate among older persons with diabetes has been steadily increasing, resulting in significant health and economic burdens on both society and individuals. The objective of this study is to develop and validate a predictive nomogram for estimating the 5-year all-cause mortality risk in older persons with T2D (T2D). Methods. We obtained data from the National Health and Nutrition Survey (NHANES). A random 7 : 3 split was made between the training and validation sets. By linking the national mortality index up until December 31, 2019, we ensured a minimum of 5 years of follow-up to assess all-cause mortality. A nomogram was developed in the training cohort using a logistic regression model as well as a least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) regression model for predicting the 5-year risk of all-cause mortality. Finally, the prediction performance of the nomogram is evaluated using several validation methods. Results. We constructed a comprehensive prediction model based on the results of multivariate analysis and LASSO binomial regression. These models were then validated using data from the validation cohort. The final model includes four independent predictors: age, gender, estimated glomerular filtration rate, and white blood cell count. The C-index values for the training and validation cohorts were 0.748 and 0.762, respectively. The calibration curve demonstrates satisfactory consistency between the two cohorts. Conclusions. The newly developed nomogram proves to be a valuable tool in accurately predicting the 5-year all-cause mortality risk among older persons with diabetes, providing crucial information for tailored interventions.
基金:
This study was supported
by grants from the National Key Research and Development
Program of China (No. 2021YFC2500500).
语种:
外文
被引次数:
WOS:
PubmedID:
中科院(CAS)分区:
出版当年[2023]版:
大类|3 区医学
小类|3 区内分泌学与代谢3 区医学:研究与实验
最新[2023]版:
大类|3 区医学
小类|3 区内分泌学与代谢3 区医学:研究与实验
JCR分区:
出版当年[2022]版:
Q2ENDOCRINOLOGY & METABOLISMQ2MEDICINE, RESEARCH & EXPERIMENTAL
最新[2023]版:
Q2ENDOCRINOLOGY & METABOLISMQ2MEDICINE, RESEARCH & EXPERIMENTAL
第一作者机构:[1]Capital Med Univ, Xuanwu Hosp, Beijing, Peoples R China
通讯作者:
推荐引用方式(GB/T 7714):
Pan Dikang,Wang Hui,Wu Sensen,et al.Unveiling the Hidden Burden: Estimating All-Cause Mortality Risk in Older Individuals with Type 2 Diabetes[J].JOURNAL OF DIABETES RESEARCH.2024,2024:doi:10.1155/2024/1741878.
APA:
Pan, Dikang,Wang, Hui,Wu, Sensen,Wang, Jingyu,Ning, Yachan...&Gu, Yongquan.(2024).Unveiling the Hidden Burden: Estimating All-Cause Mortality Risk in Older Individuals with Type 2 Diabetes.JOURNAL OF DIABETES RESEARCH,2024,
MLA:
Pan, Dikang,et al."Unveiling the Hidden Burden: Estimating All-Cause Mortality Risk in Older Individuals with Type 2 Diabetes".JOURNAL OF DIABETES RESEARCH 2024.(2024)