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高甘油三酯血症性急性胰腺炎重症化风险预测模型的建立与验证

Development and validation of a risk prediction model for severe acute pancreatitis induced by hypertriglyceridemia

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收录情况: ◇ 统计源期刊 ◇ 北大核心 ◇ 卓越:梯队期刊 ◇ 中华系列

机构: [1]首都医科大学宣武医院普通外科,北京 100053 [2]中国医学科学院 北京协和医院生物 标学志物研究平台,北京 100730 [3]哈尔滨医科大学附属第一院肿瘤腔镜外科,哈尔滨 150001 [4]扬州大学附属医院消化内科胰腺中心,扬州 225000 [5]南京医科大学第一附属医院 胰腺中心,南京 200029 [6]西安交通大学第一附属医院肝胆外科,西安 710061
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关键词: 胰腺炎  高脂血症  重症急性胰腺炎  风险因素  预测模型

摘要:
Objective: To investigate the risk factors for patients with hypertriglyceridemia-related acute pancreatitis (HTG-AP) developing into severe acute pancreatitis or experiencing organ failure. Methods: This retrospective cohort study collected clinical data from 2 429 patients diagnosed with acute pancreatitis from five hospitals in China between January 2019 and December 2023 using a pre-designed data collection form. The cohort included 1 516 males and 913 females,with an age of (50.2±16.5)years(range: 11 to 99 years). Among them,353 patients (16.1%) had HTG-AP,while 1 846 (83.9%) had non-HTG-AP. HTG-AP was defined as serum triglyceride levels>500 mg/dl with other etiologies excluded. Intergroup comparisons were performed using t-tests,Mann-Whitney U test or χ² tests,respectively. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses were conducted to assess risk factors for severe acute pancreatitis after adjusting for potential confounders,and a predictive model was developed and validated. Results: Compared with other etiologies,HTG-AP patients had a higher risk of progressing to SAP (OR=1.415,95%CI: 0.866 to 2.312, P=0.017) and organ failure (OR=1.256,95%CI: 1.015 to 1.554, P=0.036). Among HTG-AP patients,risk factors for SAP included body mass index (OR=1.856,95%CI: 1.742 to 1.987, P=0.033),fasting blood glucose (OR=1.128,95%CI: 1.036 to 1.229, P=0.006),white blood cell count(OR=1.162,95%CI: 1.055 to 1.281, P=0.002),and the presence of pleural effusion (OR=13.151,95%CI: 4.330 to 19.946, P<0.01). A nomogram prediction model for SAP in HTG-AP was constructed based on these risk factors,demonstrating good discriminative ability with area under the curve values of 0.877 in the training set and 0.894 in the validation set,along with satisfactory calibration. Conclusions: HTG-AP patients are at higher risk of developing SAP and organ failure. The risk prediction model incorporating body mass index,fasting blood glucose,white blood cell count,and pleural effusion shows good predictive value for SAP.

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第一作者机构: [1]首都医科大学宣武医院普通外科,北京 100053
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