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Development and validation of a nomogram to estimate the pretest probability of cancer in Chinese patients with solid solitary pulmonary nodules: A multi-institutional study

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机构: [1]Department of Thoracic Surgery, Shanghai Pulmonary Hospital, Tongji University School of Medicine, Shanghai, P. R. China [2]Department of Pathology, Shanghai Pulmonary Hospital, Tongji University School of Medicine, Shanghai, P. R. China [3]Department of Radiology, Shanghai Pulmonary Hospital, Tongji University School of Medicine, Shanghai, P. R. China [4]Division of Epidemiology, Department of Health Sciences Research, Mayo Clinic, Rochester, Minnesota [5]Department of Thoracic Surgery, The Second Affiliated Hospital of Soochow University, Jiangsu, P. R. China [6]Department of Thoracic Surgery, The Affiliated Wujiang Hospital of Nantong University, Jiangsu, P. R. China [7]Department of Thoracic Surgery, Nantong Sixth People’s Hospital, Jiangsu, P. R. China [8]Department of Thoracic Surgery, Fenghua People’s Hospital, Zhejiang, P. R. China
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关键词: lung cancer nomogram risk prediction solitary pulmonary nodule

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Objectives: To develop and validate a nomogram to estimate the pretest probability of malignancy in Chinese patients with solid solitary pulmonary nodule (SPN). Materials and Methods: A primary cohort of 1798 patients with pathologically confirmed solid SPNs after surgery was retrospectively studied at five institutions from January 2014 to December 2015. A nomogram based on independent prediction factors of malignant solid SPN was developed. Predictive performance also was evaluated using the calibration curve and the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC). Results: The mean age of the cohort was 58.9 +/- 10.7 years. In univariate and multivariate analysis, age; history of cancer; the log base 10 transformations of serum carcinoembryonic antigen value; nodule diameter; the presence of spiculation, pleural indentation, and calcification remained the predictive factors of malignancy. A nomogram was developed, and the AUC value (0.85; 95%CI, 0.83-0.88) was significantly higher than other three models. The calibration cure showed optimal agreement between the malignant probability as predicted by nomogram and the actual probability. Conclusions: We developed and validated a nomogram that can estimate the pretest probability of malignant solid SPNs, which can assist clinical physicians to select and interpret the results of subsequent diagnostic tests.

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出版当年[2016]版:
大类 | 3 区 医学
小类 | 2 区 外科 3 区 肿瘤学
最新[2023]版:
大类 | 3 区 医学
小类 | 3 区 肿瘤学 3 区 外科
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出版当年[2015]版:
Q1 SURGERY Q2 ONCOLOGY
最新[2023]版:
Q2 SURGERY Q3 ONCOLOGY

影响因子: 最新[2023版] 最新五年平均 出版当年[2015版] 出版当年五年平均 出版前一年[2014版] 出版后一年[2016版]

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第一作者机构: [1]Department of Thoracic Surgery, Shanghai Pulmonary Hospital, Tongji University School of Medicine, Shanghai, P. R. China
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通讯机构: [*1]Department of Thoracic Surgery, Shanghai Pulmonary Hospital, Tongji University School of Medicine, Zhengmin Road 507, Shanghai 200433, P. R. China.
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