机构:[1]Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Capital Medical University,Beijing 100069, China[2]Beijing Municipal Key Laboratory of Clinical Epidemiology, Beijing 100069, China[3]Institute for Infectious Disease & Endemic Disease Control, Beijing Center for Disease Prevention & Control (CDC), Beijing Center for Preventive Medical Research, Beijing 100069, China[4]Department of Geriatrics, XuanWu Hospital of Capital Medical University, Beijing 100069, China老年医学科首都医科大学宣武医院[5]Systems and Intervention Research Centre for Health, School of Medical Sciences, Edith Cowan University, Perth 6027, Australia
Objective: To probe the spatiotemporal patterns of the incidence of scarlet fever in Beijing, China, from 2005 to 2014. Methods: A spatiotemporal analysis was conducted at the district/county level in the Beijing region based on the reported cases of scarlet fever during the study period. Moran's autocorrelation coefficient was used to examine the spatial autocorrelation of scarlet fever, whereas the Getis-Ord Gi* statistic was used to determine the hotspot incidence of scarlet fever. Likewise, the space-time scan statistic was used to detect the space-time clusters, including the relative risk of scarlet fever incidence across all settings. Results: A total of 26,860 scarlet fever cases were reported in Beijing during the study period (2005-2014). The average annual incidence of scarlet fever was 14.25 per 100,000 population (range, 6.76 to 32.03 per 100,000). The incidence among males was higher than that among females, and more than two-thirds of scarlet fever cases (83.8%) were among children 3-8 years old. The seasonal incidence peaks occurred from March to July. A higher relative risk area was mainly in the city and urban districts of Beijing. The most likely space-time clusters and secondary clusters were detected to be diversely distributed in every study year. Conclusions: The spatiotemporal patterns of scarlet fever were relatively unsteady in Beijing from 2005 to 2014. The at-risk population was mainly scattered in urban settings and dense districts with high population, indicating a positive relationship between population density and increased risk of scarlet fever exposure. Children under 15 years of age were the most susceptible to scarlet fever.
基金:
National Science and Technology, Major Project(2012ZX10005009-003 and 2014ZX10004005-001),
National 973 Project (serial No.: 2011CB505404),
National “12th Five-Year” Plan for Science and Technology Support, China (2012BAI37B03),
National Natural Science Foundation of China (serial No.: 81302516),
Edith Cowan University-(SRF 2015–2016),
Edith Cowan University Industry Collaboration Scheme-2013 (G1001368).
第一作者机构:[1]Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Capital Medical University,Beijing 100069, China[2]Beijing Municipal Key Laboratory of Clinical Epidemiology, Beijing 100069, China
通讯作者:
通讯机构:[1]Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Capital Medical University,Beijing 100069, China[2]Beijing Municipal Key Laboratory of Clinical Epidemiology, Beijing 100069, China[3]Institute for Infectious Disease & Endemic Disease Control, Beijing Center for Disease Prevention & Control (CDC), Beijing Center for Preventive Medical Research, Beijing 100069, China
推荐引用方式(GB/T 7714):
Gehendra Mahara,Chao Wang,Da Huo,et al.Spatiotemporal Pattern Analysis of Scarlet Fever Incidence in Beijing, China, 2005-2014[J].INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH AND PUBLIC HEALTH.2016,13(1):doi:10.3390/ijerph13010131.
APA:
Gehendra Mahara,Chao Wang,Da Huo,Qin Xu,Fangfang Huang...&Xiuhua Guo.(2016).Spatiotemporal Pattern Analysis of Scarlet Fever Incidence in Beijing, China, 2005-2014.INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH AND PUBLIC HEALTH,13,(1)
MLA:
Gehendra Mahara,et al."Spatiotemporal Pattern Analysis of Scarlet Fever Incidence in Beijing, China, 2005-2014".INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH AND PUBLIC HEALTH 13..1(2016)