Spatiotemporal predictions of obesity prevalence in Chinese children and adolescents: based on analyses of obesogenic environmental variability and Bayesian model
机构:[1]National Institute for Nutrition and Health, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, No. 29 Nanwei Road, Xicheng District, Beijing 100050, China[2]Center for Clinical Epidemiology & Evidence-based Medicine of Beijing Children Hospital, Capital Medical University, National Center for Children’s Health, No. 56 Nanlishi Road, Xicheng District, Beijing 100045, China职能科室临床流行病与循证医学中心首都医科大学附属北京儿童医院[3]School of Statistics, Shanxi University of Finance and Economics, No. 696 Wucheng Road, Taiyuan 030006 Shanxi, China
Objective To find variations in Chinese obesogenic environmental priorities from 2000 to 2011, predict spatiotemporal distribution of obesity prevalence aged 7-17 years in 31 provinces, and provide foundations for policy-makers to reduce obesity in children and adolescents. Methods Based on data examination of provincial obesity prevalence aged 7-17 years from three rounds of China Health and Nutrition Surveys (in 9 [2000], 9 [2006], and 12 [2011] provinces) and corresponding years' environments in 31 provinces from China Statistical Yearbooks and other sources, 12 predictors were selected. We used 30 surveyed provinces in three rounds as training samples to fit three analytic models with partial least-square regressions and prioritized predictors by variable importance projection to find variations. And fitted a spatiotemporal prediction model with Bayesian analysis to infer in space-time. Results Variations of obesogenic environmental priorities were found at different times. A Bayesian spatiotemporal prediction model with deviance information criterion of 155.60 and statistically significant (P < 0.05) parameter estimates of intercept (-717.0400, 95% confidence intervals [CI]: -1186.0300, -248.0480), year (0.3584, CI: 0.1245, 0.5924), square of food industry level (0.0003, CI: 0.0002, 0.0004), and log (healthcare) (5.3742, CI: 2.5138, 8.2347) was optimized Totally inferred average obesity prevalence among children and adolescents were 2.23%, 5.11%, 10.77%, 12.20%, 13.99%, and 17.58% in 31 provinces in China in 2000, 2006, 2011, 2015, 2020, and 2030, respectively. Obesity in north and east of China clusters on predicted maps. Conclusions Obesity prevalence in children and adolescents in China is rapidly increasing, growing at 0.3584% annually from 2000 to 2011. From longitudinal observation, prevalence was significantly influenced by food industry ("Amplifier") and healthcare service ("Balancer"). Targeted interventions in north and east of China are pressing. Further researches on the mechanisms underlying the influence of food industry, healthcare service, and so on in children and adolescents are needed.
基金:
National Institute for Nutrition and Health, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention; Carolina Population Center, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill; US National Institutes of HealthUnited States Department of Health & Human ServicesNational Institutes of Health (NIH) - USA [R01-HD30880, DK056350, R24-HD050924, R01-HD38700]
第一作者机构:[1]National Institute for Nutrition and Health, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, No. 29 Nanwei Road, Xicheng District, Beijing 100050, China
通讯作者:
通讯机构:[1]National Institute for Nutrition and Health, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, No. 29 Nanwei Road, Xicheng District, Beijing 100050, China
推荐引用方式(GB/T 7714):
Guo C.,Wang H.,Feng G.,et al.Spatiotemporal predictions of obesity prevalence in Chinese children and adolescents: based on analyses of obesogenic environmental variability and Bayesian model[J].INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF OBESITY.2019,43(7):1380-1390.doi:10.1038/s41366-018-0301-0.
APA:
Guo, C.,Wang, H.,Feng, G.,Li, J.,Su, C....&Zhang, B..(2019).Spatiotemporal predictions of obesity prevalence in Chinese children and adolescents: based on analyses of obesogenic environmental variability and Bayesian model.INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF OBESITY,43,(7)
MLA:
Guo, C.,et al."Spatiotemporal predictions of obesity prevalence in Chinese children and adolescents: based on analyses of obesogenic environmental variability and Bayesian model".INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF OBESITY 43..7(2019):1380-1390