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The temporal distribution of new H7N9 avian influenza infections based on laboratory-confirmed cases in Mainland China, 2013-2017

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机构: [1]Department of Disease Control, Center for Disease Control and Prevention of Shenyang Military Region, Shenyang, China. [2]China National Clinical Research Center for Neurological Diseases, Beijing TianTan Hospital, Beijing, China. [3]The Emergency Center for Animals Disease of Liaoning Province, Shenyang, China.
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In this study, estimates of the growth rate of new infections, based on the growth rate of new laboratory-confirmed cases, were used to provide a statistical basis for in-depth research into the epidemiological patterns of H7N9 epidemics. The incubation period, interval from onset to laboratory confirmation, and confirmation time for all laboratory-confirmed cases of H7N9 avian influenza in Mainland China, occurring between January 2013 and June 2017, were used as the statistical data. Stochastic processes theory and maximum likelihood were used to calculate the growth rate of new infections. Time-series analysis was then performed to assess correlations between the time series of new infections and new laboratory-confirmed cases. The rate of new infections showed significant seasonal fluctuation. Laboratory confirmation was delayed by a period of time longer than that of the infection (average delay, 13 days; standard deviation, 6.8 days). At the lags of -7.5 and -15 days, respectively, the time-series of new infections and new confirmed cases were significantly correlated; the cross correlation coefficients (CCFs) were 0.61 and 0.16, respectively. The temporal distribution characteristics of new infections and new laboratory-confirmed cases were similar and strongly correlated.

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出版当年[2017]版:
大类 | 3 区 综合性期刊
小类 | 3 区 综合性期刊
最新[2023]版:
大类 | 2 区 综合性期刊
小类 | 2 区 综合性期刊
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出版当年[2016]版:
Q1 MULTIDISCIPLINARY SCIENCES
最新[2023]版:
Q1 MULTIDISCIPLINARY SCIENCES

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第一作者机构: [1]Department of Disease Control, Center for Disease Control and Prevention of Shenyang Military Region, Shenyang, China.
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通讯机构: [1]Department of Disease Control, Center for Disease Control and Prevention of Shenyang Military Region, Shenyang, China.
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