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Global, regional, and national disease burden estimates of acute lower respiratory infections due to respiratory syncytial virus in young children in 2015: a systematic review and modelling study

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机构: [1]Univ Edinburgh, Ctr Global Hlth Res, Usher Inst Populat Hlth Sci & Informat, Teviot Pl, Edinburgh EH8 9AG, Midlothian, Scotland; [2]Univ Glasgow, Inst Hlth & Wellbeing, Glasgow, Lanark, Scotland; [3]Johns Hopkins Bloomberg Sch Publ Hlth, Dept Int Hlth, Int Vaccine Access Ctr, Baltimore, MD USA; [4]Univ Colorado, Aurora, CO USA; [5]Univ Witwatersrand, Sch Pathol, Med Res Council, Resp & Meningeal Pathogens Res Unit, Johannesburg, South Africa; [6]Univ Witwatersrand, Natl Res Fdn Vaccine Preventable Dis, Dept Sci & Technol, Johannesburg, South Africa; [7]Agence Med Prevent, Paris, France; [8]Fdn INFANT, Buenos Aires, DF, Argentina; [9]CISM, Maputo, Mozambique; [10]Minist Hlth Santiago, Epidemiol Dept, Santiago, Chile; [11]Minist Hlth, Lome, Togo; [12]Aga Khan Univ, Dept Pediat & Child Hlth, Karachi, Pakistan; [13]Med Res Council Unit Gambia, Basse, Gambia; [14]King Georges Med Univ, Dept Pediat, Lucknow, Uttar Pradesh, India; [15]Kenya Govt Med Res Ctr, Wellcome Trust Res Programme, Ctr Geog Med Res Coast, Kilifi, Kenya; [16]Int Ctr Diarrhoeal Dis Res, Dhaka, Bangladesh; [17]Ctr Dis Control & Prevent, Atlanta, GA USA; [18]Thailand Minist Publ Health US, Ctr Dis Control & Prevent Collaborat, Global Dis Detect Ctr, Nonthaburi, Thailand; [19]Ctr Dis Control & Prevent, Div Global Hlth Protect, Atlanta, GA USA; [20]Minist Hlth, Managua, Nicaragua; [21]Hosp Materno Infantil Jose Domingo de Obaldia, Ciudad De David, Chiriqui, Panama; [22]Univ Bergen, Ctr Int Hlth, Bergen, Norway; [23]Tribhuvan Univ Inst Med, Dept Child Hlth, Kathmandu, Nepal; [24]Univ Barcelona, Hosp Clin, ISGlobal Barcelona Ctr Int Hlth Res CRESIB, Barcelona, Spain; [25]ICREA, Pg Lluis Co 23, Barcelona 08010, Spain; [26]Minis Salud Publ & Bienestar Social, Hosp Gen Peditr Ninos Acosta Nu, San Lorenzo, Paraguay; [27]Kenya Govt Med Res Ctr, Ctr Global Hlth Res, Kisumu, Kenya; [28]Univ Med Ctr Utrecht, Wilhelmina Childrens Hosp, Utrecht, Netherlands; [29]Emory Univ, Emory Global Hlth Inst, Atlanta, GA 30322 USA; [30]All India Inst Med Sci, New Delhi, India; [31]Univ Liverpool, Dept Publ Hlth & Policy, Liverpool, Merseyside, England; [32]Ctr Dis Control & Prevent, NCEZID, Arctic Invest Program, Anchorage, AK USA; [33]Inst Pasteur Cambodia, Phnom Penh, Cambodia; [34]GSK Vaccines Singapore, Singapore, Singapore; [35]Childrens Hosp Colorado, Dept Pediat Infect Dis, Aurora, CO USA; [36]Natl Inst Virol, Pune, Maharashtra, India; [37]Univ Teaching Hosp, Lusaka, Zambia; [38]Univ Hlth Sci, Fac Pharm, Rodolphe Merieux Lab, Phnom Penh, Cambodia; [39]Cent Amer Reg, Ctr Dis Control & Prevent, Guatemala City, Guatemala; [40]Natl Hlth Lab Serv, Natl Inst Communicable Dis, Ctr Resp Dis & Meningitis, Johannesburg, South Africa; [41]Univ Witwatersrand, Fac Hlth Sci, Sch Publ Hlth, Johannesburg, South Africa; [42]Minist Hlth, Hosp San Juan de Dios Santa Ana, San Salvador, El Salvador; [43]Natl Inst Hyg & Epidemiol, Hanoi, Vietnam; [44]Bayanzurkh Dist Gen Hosp, Ulaanbaatar, Mongol Peo Rep; [45]Natl Pediat Hosp, Dept Pneumol, Phnom Penh, Cambodia; [46]CEMIC, Buenos Aires, DF, Argentina; [47]Hlth Secretariat City Belo Horizonte, Belo Horizonte, MG, Brazil; [48]Inst Publ Hlth, Santiago, Chile; [49]Chinese Ctr Dis Control & Prevent, Key Lab Surveillance & Early Warning Infect Dis, Beijing, Peoples R China; [50]Austral Univ, Dept Epidemiol, Buenos Aires, DF, Argentina; [51]Ricardo Gutierrez Children Hosp, Buenos Aires, DF, Argentina; [52]Univ Michigan, Sch Publ Hlth, Dept Epidemiol, Ann Arbor, MI 48109 USA; [53]Vanderbilt Univ, 221 Kirkland Hall, Nashville, TN 37235 USA; [54]KEM Hosp Res Ctr, Pune, Maharashtra, India; [55]Univ New South Wales, Fac Med, Sch Womens & Childrens Hlth, Sydney, NSW, Australia; [56]Univ Auckland, Dept Paediat, Auckland, New Zealand; [57]Univ Otago, Ctr Int Hlth, Dunedin, New Zealand; [58]Univ Valle Guatemala, Ctr Hlth Studies, Guatemala City, Guatemala; [59]Univ Mohammed 5, Sch Med & Pharm Rabat, Unit Training & Res Publ Hlth, Rabat, Morocco; [60]Univ Padjdjaran, Bandung, Indonesia; [61]Univ Jordan, Amman, Jordan; [62]Univ Maryland, Sch Med, Dept Pediat & Med, Ctr Vaccine Dev, Baltimore, MD 21201 USA; [63]Natl Sci & Tech Res Council CONICET, Buenos Aires, DF, Argentina; [64]Hosp Dr Ernesto Torres Galdames, Iquique, Chile; [65]Res Inst Trop Med, Muntinlupa, Philippines; [66]Res Inst Trop Med, Dept Hlth, Muntinlupa, Philippines; [67]Minist Publ Hlth & Social Welf, Guatemala City, Guatemala; [68]Ctr Dis Control & Prevent, Div Global Hlth Protect, Nairobi, Kenya; [69]Pwani Univ, Kilifi, Kenya; [70]Univ Cape Town, Div Med Microbiol, Cape Town, South Africa; [71]Natl Hlth Lab Serv, Cape Town, South Africa; [72]Univ Warwick, Sch Life Sci, Warwick, England; [73]Mongolian Acad Med Sci, Ulaanbaatar, Mongol Peo Rep; [74]Univ Grad Sch Med, Dept Virol, Sendai, Miyagi, Japan; [75]UCBL1, ENS Lyon, Emerging Pathofens Lab, Fondat Merieux,CIRI,Inserm U1111,CNRS,UMR5308, Lyon, France; [76]Emory Univ, Rollins Sch Publ Hlth, Atlanta, GA 30322 USA; [77]CICM, Antananarivo, Madagascar; [78]NIH, Div Int Epidemiol & Populat Studies, Fogarty Int Ctr, Bethesda, MD USA; [79]Charite, Med Ctr, Dept Pediat, Berlin, Germany; [80]Hop Femme Mere Enfant, Antananarivo, Madagascar; [81]US Naval Med Res, Unit 6, Callao, Peru; [82]Univ Nacl Asunc, Inst Invest Ciencias Salud, Dept Biol Mol & Genet, Asuncion, Paraguay; [83]Univ Med Sci, Dept Virol, Sch Publ Hlth, Tehran, Iran; [84]RKI, Berlin, Germany; [85]London Sch Hyg & Trop Med, London, England; [86]Univ New Mexico, Dept Emergency Med, Albuquerque, NM 87131 USA; [87]Beijing Childrens Hosp, Beijing Pediat Res Inst, Key Lab Major Dis Children & Natl Key Discipline, Capital Med Univ,Minist Educ, Beijing, Peoples R China; [88]Alaska Native Tribal Hlth Consortium, Anchorage, AK USA; [89]Innlandet Hosp Trust, Dept Res, Lillehammer, Norway; [90]Minist Hlth, Jakarta, Indonesia; [91]CHU Gabriel Toure, Bamako, Mali; [92]Columbia Univ, Mailman Sch Publ Hlth, Ctr Infect & Immun, New York, NY 10027 USA; [93]Mahidol Univ, Fac Trop Med, Mahidol Oxford Trop Med Res Unit, Malaria Res Unit, Mae Sot, Thailand; [94]Univ Pretoria, Dept Med Virol, Ctr Viral Zoonosis, Pretoria, South Africa; [95]Minist Publ Hlth, Dept Med Sci, Natl Inst Hlth, Nonthaburi, Thailand; [96]CAMS, MOH Key Lab Syst Biol Pathogens, Beijing, Peoples R China; [97]CAMS, Christophe Merieux Lab, IPB, CAMS Fdn Merieux, Beijing, Peoples R China; [98]PUMC, Beijing, Peoples R China; [99]Nagasaki Univ, Inst Trop Med, Dept Pediat Infect Dis, Nagasaki, Japan; [100]Red Cross War Mem Childrens Hosp, Dept Paediat & Child Heath, Cape Town, South Africa; [101]Univ Cape Town, MRC Unit Child & Adolescent Hlth, Cape Town, South Africa; [102]Publ Hlth Fdn India, New Delhi, India
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Background We have previously estimated that respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) was associated with 22% of all episodes of (severe) acute lower respiratory infection (ALRI) resulting in 55 000 to 199 000 deaths in children younger than 5 years in 2005. In the past 5 years, major research activity on RSV has yielded substantial new data from developing countries. With a considerably expanded dataset from a large international collaboration, we aimed to estimate the global incidence, hospital admission rate, and mortality from RSV-ALRI episodes in young children in 2015. Methods We estimated the incidence and hospital admission rate of RSV-associated ALRI (RSV-ALRI) in children younger than 5 years stratified by age and World Bank income regions from a systematic review of studies published between Jan 1, 1995, and Dec 31, 2016, and unpublished data from 76 high quality population-based studies. We estimated the RSV-ALRI incidence for 132 developing countries using a risk factor-based model and 2015 population estimates. We estimated the in-hospital RSV-ALRI mortality by combining in-hospital case fatality ratios with hospital admission estimates from hospital-based (published and unpublished) studies. We also estimated overall RSV-ALRI mortality by identifying studies reporting monthly data for ALRI mortality in the community and RSV activity. Findings We estimated that globally in 2015, 33.1 million (uncertainty range [UR] 21.6-50.3) episodes of RSV-ALRI, resulted in about 3.2 million (2.7-3.8) hospital admissions, and 59 600 (48 000-74 500) in-hospital deaths in children younger than 5 years. In children younger than 6 months, 1.4 million (UR 1.2-1.7) hospital admissions, and 27 300 (UR 20 700-36 200) in-hospital deaths were due to RSV-ALRI. We also estimated that the overall RSV-ALRI mortality could be as high as 118 200 (UR 94 600-149 400). Incidence and mortality varied substantially from year to year in any given population. Interpretation Globally, RSV is a common cause of childhood ALRI and a major cause of hospital admissions in young children, resulting in a substantial burden on health-care services. About 45% of hospital admissions and inhospital deaths due to RSV-ALRI occur in children younger than 6 months. An effective maternal RSV vaccine or monoclonal antibody could have a substantial effect on disease burden in this age group.

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出版当年[2016]版:
大类 | 1 区 医学
小类 | 1 区 医学:内科
最新[2023]版:
大类 | 1 区 医学
小类 | 1 区 医学:内科
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出版当年[2015]版:
Q1 MEDICINE, GENERAL & INTERNAL
最新[2023]版:
Q1 MEDICINE, GENERAL & INTERNAL

影响因子: 最新[2023版] 最新五年平均 出版当年[2015版] 出版当年五年平均 出版前一年[2014版] 出版后一年[2016版]

第一作者:
第一作者机构: [1]Univ Edinburgh, Ctr Global Hlth Res, Usher Inst Populat Hlth Sci & Informat, Teviot Pl, Edinburgh EH8 9AG, Midlothian, Scotland;
通讯作者:
通讯机构: [1]Univ Edinburgh, Ctr Global Hlth Res, Usher Inst Populat Hlth Sci & Informat, Teviot Pl, Edinburgh EH8 9AG, Midlothian, Scotland; [102]Publ Hlth Fdn India, New Delhi, India
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