Background: The present study aimed to validate the pooled cohort risk (PCR) equations in a Chinese ischemic stroke population and to explore its prognostic value in predicting stroke recurrence, coronary heart disease, and vascular death. Material/Method: Patients were selected from the China National Stroke Registry. The C statistic was used to examine the clinical prediction of the scores. To analyze the relevant risk factors, univariate and multivariate logistic regressions were performed. Results: Out of a total of 22 216 patients, 8287 patients (including 7652 acute ischemic stroke [AIS] and 635 transient ischemic attack [TIA] patients) were selected and enrolled in the study. At 1-year follow-up, for stroke recurrence rate, the C statistic value was 0.584 in AIS patients and 0.573 in all patients. For non-fatal myocardial infarction, the C statistic value was 0.533 in AIS patients and 0.493 in all patients. For vascular death, the C statistic value was 0.592 in AIS patients and 0.592 in all patients. For all events, the C statistic value was 0.582 in AIS patients and 0.575 in all patients. For AIS patients, the 12-month cumulative rates for recurrent stroke, vascular death, and combined vascular events were higher in the high-PCR group (PCR >= 20%). Conclusions: Pooled cohort risk equations may serve as potential tools to predict and stratify the 1-year risk of recurrent stroke and combined vascular events in AIS/TIA patients in China.
基金:
Ministry of Science and TechnologyMinistry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology, Japan (MEXT); Ministry of Health of the People's Republic of China; National Science and Technology Major Project of China [2008ZX09312-008]; State Key Development Program for Basic Research of ChinaState Key Development Program for Basic Research of China [2009CB521905]
第一作者机构:[1]Capital Med Univ, Beijing Tiantan Hosp, Stroke Ctr, Beijing, Peoples R China;[2]Natl Clin Res Ctr Neurol Dis, Beijing, Peoples R China;[3]Beijing Inst Brain Disorders, Stroke Ctr, Beijing, Peoples R China;[4]Beijing Key Lab Translat Med Cerebrovasc Dis, Beijing, Peoples R China;[5]Capital Med Univ, Beijing Shijitan Hosp, Dept Neurol, Beijing, Peoples R China
通讯作者:
通讯机构:[1]Capital Med Univ, Beijing Tiantan Hosp, Stroke Ctr, Beijing, Peoples R China;[2]Natl Clin Res Ctr Neurol Dis, Beijing, Peoples R China;[3]Beijing Inst Brain Disorders, Stroke Ctr, Beijing, Peoples R China;[4]Beijing Key Lab Translat Med Cerebrovasc Dis, Beijing, Peoples R China;
推荐引用方式(GB/T 7714):
Li Haiyan,Zhang Runhua,Liu Gaifen,et al.External Validation of Pooled Cohort Risk Equations to Predict 1-Year Clinical Outcome in Ischemic Stroke Patients[J].MEDICAL SCIENCE MONITOR.2017,23:4415-4421.doi:10.12659/MSM.903050.
APA:
Li, Haiyan,Zhang, Runhua,Liu, Gaifen,Liu, Liping,Wang, Yilong&Wang, Yongjun.(2017).External Validation of Pooled Cohort Risk Equations to Predict 1-Year Clinical Outcome in Ischemic Stroke Patients.MEDICAL SCIENCE MONITOR,23,
MLA:
Li, Haiyan,et al."External Validation of Pooled Cohort Risk Equations to Predict 1-Year Clinical Outcome in Ischemic Stroke Patients".MEDICAL SCIENCE MONITOR 23.(2017):4415-4421