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Global, regional, and national disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) for 306 diseases and injuries and healthy life expectancy (HALE) for 188 countries, 1990-2013: quantifying the epidemiological transition

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机构: [1]Univ Washington, Inst Hlth Metr & Evaluat, Seattle, WA 98121 USA; [2]Univ Washington, Harborview Injury Prevent & Res Ctr, Seattle, WA 98195 USA; [3]Univ Washington, Seattle Childrens Hosp, Seattle, WA 98195 USA; [4]Univ Washington, Seattle, WA 98195 USA; [5]Univ London Imperial Coll Sci Technol & Med, Dept Infect Dis Epidemiol, London, England; [6]Univ London Imperial Coll Sci Technol & Med, London, England; [7]Hacettepe Univ, Inst Populat Studies, Ankara, Turkey; [8]Hacettepe Univ, Inst Publ Hlth, Ankara, Turkey; [9]Cairo Univ, Fac Med, Cairo, Egypt; [10]Mekelle Univ, Coll Hlth Sci, Sch Publ Hlth, Mekelle, Ethiopia; [11]Kilte Awlaelo Hlth & Demog Surveillance Site, Mekelle, Ethiopia; [12]Dupuytren Univ Hosp, Limoges, France; [13]Univ So Calif, Calif Hosp, Family Med Residency Program, Los Angeles, CA USA; [14]Harvard Univ, Inst Global Hlth, Boston, MA 02115 USA; [15]Harvard Univ, Dept Nutr, Boston, MA USA; [16]Harvard Univ, Sch Publ Hlth, Boston, MA 02115 USA; [17]Harvard Univ, Boston, MA 02115 USA; [18]UCL, Dept Epidemiol & Publ Hlth, London, England; [19]Weill Cornell Med Coll Ar Rayyan Qatar, Doha, Qatar; [20]Birzeit Univ, Inst Community & Publ Hlth, Ramallah, Israel; [21]Univ Melbourne, Gen Practice & Primary Hlth Care Acad Ctr, Melbourne, Vic, Australia; [22]Univ Melbourne, Dept Med, Melbourne, Vic, Australia; [23]Univ Melbourne, Dept Florey, Melbourne, Vic, Australia; [24]Univ Melbourne, Melbourne, Vic, Australia; [25]Univ Basel, Basel, Switzerland; [26]Univ Basel, Swiss Trop & Publ Hlth Inst, Basel, Switzerland; [27]Univ Basel, Basel, Switzerland; [28]Assoc Ivoirienne Bien Etre Familial, Abidjan, Cote Ivoire; [29]Univ Extremadura, Caceres, Spain; [30]Tufts Univ, Friedman Sch Nutr Sci & Policy, Boston, MA 02111 USA; [31]Tufts Univ, Boston, MA 02111 USA; [32]Inst Publ Hlth Sci, Stockholm, Sweden; [33]Int Ctr Diarrhoeal Dis Res, Dhaka 1000, Bangladesh; [34]Minist Hlth, Al Khuwair, Oman; [35]Univ Republica, Fac Med, Dept Med Prevent & Social, Montevideo, Uruguay; [36]Univ Republica, Fac Med, Montevideo, Uruguay; [37]Debre Markos Univ, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia; [38]King Abdullah Bin Abdulaziz Univ Hosp, Riyadh, Saudi Arabia; [39]Univ Oxford, Dept Zool, Oxford, England; [40]Univ Oxford, Oxford, England; [41]Melbourne Hlth, Parkville, Vic, Australia; [42]Univ Lorraine, Sch Publ Hlth, Nancy, France; [43]Karolinska Inst, Dept Publ Hlth Sci, Stockholm, Sweden; [44]Karolinska Inst, Dept Neurobiol Care Sci & Soc NVS, Stockholm, Sweden; [45]Karolinska Inst, Dept Med Epidemiol & Biostat, Stockholm, Sweden; [46]Karolinska Inst, Aging Res Ctr, Stockholm, Sweden; [47]Karolinska Inst, Stockholm, Sweden; [48]Minist Hlth, Riyadh, Saudi Arabia; [49]Charite, D-13353 Berlin, Germany; [50]Govt, Madrid, Spain; [51]Univ Cartagena, Cartagena De Indias, Colombia; [52]Univ Groningen, Univ Med Ctr Groningen, Dept Epidemiol, Groningen, Netherlands; [53]Univ Groningen, Univ Med Ctr Groningen, Dept Psychiat, Groningen, Netherlands; [54]Bahir Dar Univ, Coll Med & Hlth Sci, Bahir Dar, Ethiopia; [55]Ahmadu Bello Univ, Zaria, Nigeria; [56]Kurdistan Univ Med Sci, Kurdistan Environm Hlth Res Ctr, Sanandaj, Iran; [57]Minist Publ Hlth, Beirut, Lebanon; [58]Univ London, St Georges, London, England; [59]Univ Philippines Manila, Coll Publ Hlth, Dept Hlth Policy & Adm, Manila, Philippines; [60]Univ Philippines Manila, Manila, Philippines; [61]Uppsala Univ, Dept Med Sci, Uppsala, Sweden; [62]Dalarna Univ, Falun, Sweden; [63]Univ Belgrade, Inst Microbiol & Immunol, Sch Med, Belgrade, Serbia; [64]Univ Childrens Hosp Belgrade, Belgrade, Serbia; [65]South Asian Publ Hlth Forum, Islamabad, Pakistan; [66]Mashhad Univ Med Sci, Mashhad, Iran; [67]Minist Hlth, Wellness Human Serv & Gender Relat, St Lucia, Qld, Australia; [68]Natl Inst Publ Hlth, Cuernavaca, Morelos, Mexico; [69]Komfo Anokye Teaching Hosp, Kumasi, Ghana; [70]Publ Hlth Agcy Canada, Toronto, ON, Canada; [71]INECO Neurociencias, Rosario, Argentina; [72]Sri Ramachandra Univ, Madras, Tamil Nadu, India; [73]Univ Birmingham, Birmingham, W Midlands, England; [74]Univ Auckland, Sch Psychol, Auckland 1, New Zealand; [75]Univ Auckland, Auckland 1, New Zealand; [76]Univ Gothenburg, Dept Occupat & Environm Hlth, Gothenburg, Sweden; [77]Pontificia Univ Javeriana, Dept Ind Engn, Bogota, Colombia; [78]Univ Canterbury, Sch Hlth Sci, Christchurch 1, New Zealand; [79]Stanford Univ, Sch Med, Stanford, CA USA; [80]Stanford Univ, Stanford, CA 94305 USA; [81]Univ Oxford, Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam; [82]Coll Publ Hlth & Trop Med, Jazan, Saudi Arabia; [83]IRCCS Ist Ric Farmacol Mario Negri, Milan, Italy; [84]Madawalabu Univ, Bale Goba, Ethiopia; [85]Yale Univ, New Haven, CT USA; [86]Natl Inst Psychiat Ramon Fuente Muniz, Mexico City, DF, Mexico; [87]Univ Sao Paulo, Sao Paulo, Brazil; [88]NYU, Coll Dent, Dept Epidemiol & Hlth Promot, New York, NY USA; [89]NYU, Sch Med, Nelson Inst Environm Med, New York, NY USA; [90]NYU, New York, NY USA; [91]Kings Coll London, London, England; [92]Univ Addis Ababa, Sch Publ Hlth, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia; [93]Univ Addis Ababa, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia; [94]Queen Elizabeth Hosp, Birmingham B15 2TH, W Midlands, England; [95]Univ Otago, Sch Med, Dunedin, New Zealand; [96]Postgrad Inst Med Educ & Res, Chandigarh 160012, India; [97]Aga Khan Univ, Med Ctr, Karachi, Pakistan; [98]Aga Khan Univ, Karachi, Pakistan; [99]AI Evdokimov Moscow State Univ Med & Dent, Moscow, Russia; [100]Acad VI Shumakov Fed Res Ctr Transplantol & Artif, Moscow, Russia; [101]Univ Sydney, Sydney Sch Publ Hlth, Sydney, NSW 2006, Australia; [102]Univ Sydney, Sydney, NSW 2006, Australia; [103]Minist Hlth, Gen Directorate Hlth Res, Ankara, Turkey; [104]Minist Hlth, Ankara, Turkey; [105]Tel Aviv Saurasky Med Ctr, Tel Aviv, Israel; [106]World Bank, Washington, DC 20433 USA; [107]Univ New S Wales, Transport & Rd Safety TARS Res, Kensington, NSW 2033, Australia; [108]Univ New S Wales, BHVI, Kensington, NSW 2033, Australia; [109]Univ New S Wales, Kensington, NSW 2033, Australia; [110]Anglia Ruskin Univ, Cambridge, England; [111]Georgetown Univ, Washington, DC USA; [112]Danube Univ Krems, Krems, Austria; [113]Cambridge Inst Publ Hlth, Cambridge, England; [114]Trnava Univ, Fac Hlth Sci & Social Work, Trnava, Slovakia; [115]Trnava Univ, Dept Publ Hlth, Trnava, Slovakia; [116]Ohio State Univ, Columbus, OH 43210 USA; [117]Univ Arizona, Tucson, AZ USA; [118]German Canc Res Ctr, Div Clin Epidemiol & Aging Res, Heidelberg, Germany; [119]German Canc Res Ctr, Heidelberg, Germany; [120]Univ Leicester, Leicester, Leics, England; [121]Cabrini Inst, Monash Dept Clin Epidemiol, Melbourne, Vic, Australia; [122]Monash Univ, Sch Publ Hlth & Prevent Med, Dept Epidemiol & Prevent Med, Melbourne, Vic 3004, Australia; [123]Monash Univ, Eastern Hlth Clin Sch, Melbourne, Vic 3004, Australia; [124]Monash Univ, Melbourne, Vic 3004, Australia; [125]Univ Calif San Francisco, San Francisco, CA 94143 USA; [126]Texas A&M Univ, College Stn, TX USA; [127]Univ Calgary, Calgary, AB, Canada; [128]Univ Oklahoma, Hlth Sci Ctr, Oklahoma City, OK USA; [129]Telethon Inst Child Hlth Res, Subiaco, WA, Australia; [130]Univ Autonoma Metropolitana, Mexico City, DF, Mexico; [131]SUNY Albany, Albany, NY 12222 USA; [132]Univ Perugia, I-06100 Perugia, Italy; [133]Colombian Natl Hlth Observ, Bogota, Colombia; [134]Univ Nacl Colombia, Dept Publ Hlth, Epidemiol & Publ Hlth Evaluat Grp, Bogota, Colombia; [135]Univ Diego Portales, Santiago, Chile; [136]Spanish Med & Healthcare Prod Agcy AEMPS, Minist Hlth, Div Pharmacoepidemiol & Pharmacovigilance, Madrid, Spain; [137]Univ Valencia, Dept Med, CIBERSAM, Valencia, Spain; [138]Natl TB Inst, Bengaluru, India; [139]Natl Taiwan Univ, Coll Med, Taipei, Taiwan; [140]Univ Queensland, Sch Populat Hlth, Brisbane, Qld, Australia; [141]Univ Queensland, Sch Publ Hlth, Brisbane, Qld, Australia; [142]Univ Queensland, Clin Res Ctr, Brisbane, Qld, Australia; [143]Univ Queensland, Brisbane, Qld, Australia; [144]NIEHS, Div Intramural Res, NIH, Dept Hlth & Human Serv, Res Triangle Pk, NC 27709 USA; [145]Univ Occupat & Environm Hlth, Dept Hlth Dev, Kitakyushu, Fukuoka 807, Japan; [146]Univ Occupat & Environm Hlth, Inst Ind Ecol Sci, Kitakyushu, Fukuoka 807, Japan; [147]Univ Occupat & Environm Hlth, Dept Environm Epidemiol, Kitakyushu, Fukuoka 807, Japan; [148]Univ Cambridge, Cambridge, England; [149]Bispebjerg Hosp, Copenhagen, Denmark; [150]Cyprus Univ Technol, Limassol, Cyprus; [151]Univ Salerno, I-84081 Baronissi, Italy; [152]Univ Republica, Montevideo, Uruguay; [153]Minist Salud Publ, Montevideo, Uruguay; [154]Murdoch Childrens Res Inst, Melbourne, Vic, Australia; [155]Univ Southampton, MRC Lifecourse Epidemiol Unit, Southampton, Hants, England; [156]Univ Calif San Diego, La Jolla, CA 92093 USA; [157]Mayo Clin, Rochester, MN USA; [158]Hosp Municipal Ramon Santamarina, Tandil, Argentina; [159]Univ Otago, Dunedin Sch Med, Ctr Int Hlth, Dunedin, New Zealand; [160]Univ Otago, Dunedin Sch Med, Dept Prevent & Social Med, Dunedin, New Zealand; [161]Univ Otago, Dunedin, New Zealand; [162]Massey Univ, Coll Hlth, Sch Publ Hlth, Palmerston North, New Zealand; [163]Walden Univ, Minneapolis, MN USA; [164]Publ Hlth Fdn India, New Delhi, India; [165]Guys & St Thomas NHS Fdn Trust, London, England; [166]Wellcome Trust Brighton, Brighton, E Sussex, England; [167]Sussex Ctr Global Hlth Res, Brighton, E Sussex, England; [168]Publ Hlth England, London, England; [169]Univ Med & Pharm Bucharest, Bucharest, Romania; [170]Jacobi Med Ctr, Dept Surg, Atlanta, GA USA; [171]Griffith Univ, Sch Dent & Oral Hlth, Brisbane, Qld 4111, Australia; [172]Griffith Univ, Brisbane, Qld 4111, Australia; [173]Eastern Colorado Healthcare Syst, US Dept Vet Affairs, Denver, CO USA; [174]Brighton & Sussex Med Sch, Brighton, E Sussex, England; [175]Mt Sinai Beth Israel, New York, NY USA; [176]Icahn Sch Med Mt Sinai, New York, NY USA; [177]Africa Med & Res Fdn Ethiopia, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia; [178]Univ Peradeniya, Peradeniya, Sri Lanka; [179]Univ Liverpool, Sch Med, Liverpool L69 3BX, Merseyside, England; [180]Univ Liverpool, Liverpool L69 3BX, Merseyside, England; [181]Hosp Santa Creu & Sant Pau, Barcelona, Spain; [182]Med Univ Varna, Fac Publ Hlth, Dept Social Med, Varna, Bulgaria; [183]Univ Rochester, Med Ctr, Rochester, NY 14642 USA; [184]Univ Western Australia, Perth, WA 6009, Australia; [185]Univ Tripoli, Fac Agr, Dept Food Sci, Tripoli, Libya; [186]Russian Acad Sci, Inst Social & Econ Studies Populat, Moscow, Russia; [187]Minist Hlth Russian Federat, Fed Res Inst Hlth Org & Informat, Moscow, Russia; [188]Arak Univ Med Sci & Hlth Affairs, Arak, Iran; [189]Univ Tehran Med Sci, Communicable Dis Res Ctr, Endocrinol & Metab Res Inst, Tehran, Iran; [190]Univ Tehran Med Sci, Multiple Sclerosis Res Ctr, Neurosci Inst, Tehran, Iran; [191]Univ Tehran Med Sci, Digest Dis Res Inst, Tehran, Iran; [192]UP Coll Publ Hlth, DHPA, Manila, Philippines; [193]Auckland Univ Technol, Natl Inst Stroke & Appl Neurosci, Auckland, New Zealand; [194]Auckland Univ Technol, Auckland, New Zealand; [195]Boston Univ, Boston, MA 02215 USA; [196]German Hosp Oswaldo Cruz, Inst Educ & Sci, Sao Paulo, Brazil; [197]Acad Med Sci, Inst Gerontol, Kiev, Ukraine; [198]Univ Edinburgh, Edinburgh, Midlothian, Scotland; [199]James Cook Univ, Townsville, Qld 4811, Australia; [200]Leras Afrique, Cotonou, Benin; [201]CHU Hassan II, Fes, Morocco; [202]Wageningen Univ, Div Human Nutr, NL-6700 AP Wageningen, Netherlands; [203]Agence Med Prevent, Paris, France; [204]Univ Hosp Dijon, Dijon, France; [205]Univ Massachusetts, Boston, MA 02125 USA; [206]Univ British Columbia, Sch Populat & Publ Hlth, Vancouver, BC V5Z 1M9, Canada; [207]Univ British Columbia, Vancouver, BC V5Z 1M9, Canada; [208]Tokyo Womens Med Univ, Dept Publ Hlth, Tokyo, Japan; [209]St James Sch Med, Kralendijk, Netherlands; [210]West Virginia Bur Publ Hlth, Charleston, WV USA; [211]Fortis Escorts Hosp, Jaipur, Rajasthan, India; [212]Brandeis Univ, Waltham, MA USA; [213]Arabian Gulf Univ, Manama, Bahrain; [214]Wayne Cty Dept Hlth & Human Serv, Detroit, MI USA; [215]Sun Yae Sen Univ, Sch Publ Hlth, Guangzhou, Guangdong, Peoples R China; [216]Sun Yae Sen Univ, Zhongshan Ophthalm Ctr, Guangzhou, Guangdong, Peoples R China; [217]Parc Sanitari St Joan Deu CIBERSAM, Barcelona, Spain; [218]Univ Barcelona, Barcelona, Spain; [219]Int Fdn Dermatol, London, England; [220]Fdn Entornos AC, Cuernavaca, Morelos, Mexico; [221]Columbia Univ, Dept Epidemiol, New York, NY USA; [222]Columbia Univ, New York, NY USA; [223]Natl Inst Deafness & Other Commun Disorders, Epidemiol & Stat Program, NIH, Bethesda, MD USA; [224]NHLBI, Ctr Translat Res & Implementat Sci, NIH, Bethesda, MD 20892 USA; [225]NHLBI, NIH, Bethesda, MD 20892 USA; [226]Albert Einstein Coll Med, Bronx, NY 10467 USA; [227]Univ London London Sch Hyg & Trop Med, London WC1E 7HT, England; [228]Baylor Coll Med, Houston, TX 77030 USA; [229]Secretariat Pacific Community, Publ Hlth Div, Noumea, New Caledonia; [230]Natl Inst Publ Hlth, Tunis, Tunisia; [231]Cent S Univ, Sch Publ Hlth, Changsha, Hunan, Peoples R China; [232]George Washington Univ, Washington, DC USA; [233]Qatar Univ, Doha, Qatar; [234]Aarhus Univ, Aarhus, Denmark; [235]Natl Inst Hlth Dev, Tallinn, Estonia; [236]Univ Tokyo, Grad Sch Med, Tokyo, Japan; [237]Univ Tokyo, Sch Publ Hlth, Tokyo, Japan; [238]Univ Tokyo, Tokyo, Japan; [239]Amer Canc Soc, New York, NY USA; [240]George Mason Univ, Fairfax, VA 22030 USA; [241]Yonsei Univ, Grad Sch Publ Hlth, Seoul 120749, South Korea; [242]Ctr Chron Dis Control, New Delhi, India; [243]Tianjin Ctr Dis Control & Prevent, Tianjin, Peoples R China; [244]Heidelberg Univ, Med Fac Mannheim, Dept Ophthalmol, Mannheim, Germany; [245]Natl Inst Publ Hlth, Copenhagen, Denmark; [246]Fudan Univ, Zhongshan Hosp, Shanghai 200433, Peoples R China; [247]Fudan Univ, Shanghai 200433, Peoples R China; [248]Helmholtz Ctr Infect Res, Dept Epidemiol, Braunschweig, Germany; [249]German Ctr Infect Res DZIF, Hannover Braunschweig Site, Braunschweig, Germany; [250]Minist Hlth, Malaria & Other Parasit Dis Div, Kigali City, Rwanda; [251]Case Western Univ Hosp, Cleveland, OH USA; [252]All India Inst Med Sci, New Delhi, India; [253]Oklahoma State Univ, Tulsa, OK USA; [254]Natl Ctr Dis Control & Publ Hlth, Tbilisi, Georgia; [255]South African Med Res Council, Cape Town, South Africa; [256]Univ Cape Town, Fac Hlth Sci, Hatter Inst Cardiovasc Res Africa, ZA-7925 Cape Town, South Africa; [257]Univ Cape Town, Sch Publ Hlth & Family Med, ZA-7925 Cape Town, South Africa; [258]Univ Cape Town, ZA-7925 Cape Town, South Africa; [259]Hadassah Kerem Univ Hosp, Cardiol, Jerusalem, Israel; [260]Jordan Univ Sci & Technol, Irbid, Jordan; [261]Supreme Council Hlth, Doha, Qatar; [262]Hlth Serv Acad, Islamabad, Pakistan; [263]Expanded Programme Immunizat, Islamabad, Pakistan; [264]UAE Univ, Al Ain, U Arab Emirates; [265]Seoul Natl Univ, Coll Med, Seoul, South Korea; [266]Univ Fed Rio Grande do Sul, Porto Alegre, RS, Brazil; [267]Northeastern Univ, Boston, MA 02115 USA; [268]Soonchunhyang Univ, Seoul, South Korea; [269]Southern Univ Coll, Johor Baharu, Malaysia; [270]Univ Canberra, Canberra, ACT 2601, Australia; [271]Norwegian Inst Publ Hlth, Dept Hlth Registries, Oslo, Norway; [272]Norwegian Inst Publ Hlth, Oslo, Norway; [273]Natl Cerebral & Cardiovasc Ctr, Suita, Osaka, Japan; [274]NIHRD, Ctr Community Empowerment Hlth Policy & Humanitie, Jakarta, Indonesia; [275]Oregon Hlth & Sci Univ, Portland, OR 97201 USA; [276]Univ Montreal, Montreal, PQ, Canada; [277]Univ Med Ctr Rotterdam, Erasmus MC, Rotterdam, Netherlands; [278]Rajrajeswari Med Coll & Hosp, Bangalore, Karnataka, India; [279]Arkansas State Univ, Jonesboro, AR USA; [280]Fourth View Consulting, Tallinn, Estonia; [281]Univ Adelaide, Sch Dent, Australian Res Ctr Populat Oral Hlth, Adelaide, SA, Australia; [282]Finnish Inst Occupat Hlth, Disabil Prevent Res Ctr, Helsinki, Finland; [283]Finnish Inst Occupat Hlth, Helsinki, Finland; [284]Univ Helsinki, Fac Med, Helsinki, Finland; [285]Natl Inst Hlth, Inst Hlth Policy & Dev Studies, Manila, Philippines; [286]NCI, Rockville, MD USA; [287]Help Me See Inc, New York, NY USA; [288]Inst Mexicano Oftalmol, Queretaro, Mexico; [289]Uppsala Univ, Uppsala, Sweden; [290]Inst Nacl Epidemiol Dr Juan H Jara, Mar Del Plata, Buenos Aires, Argentina; [291]Nova SE Univ, Coll Optometry, Ft Lauderdale, FL 33314 USA; [292]SUNY Albany, Rensselaer, NY USA; [293]Jinan Cent Hosp, Jinan, Peoples R China; [294]China CDC, Natl Ctr Chron & Noncommunible Dis Control Preven, Beijing, Peoples R China; [295]Anolinx LLC, Salt Lake City, UT USA; [296]Wayne State Univ, Miami, FL USA; [297]Emory Univ, Rollins Sch Publ Hlth, Atlanta, GA 30322 USA; [298]Emory Univ, Atlanta, GA 30322 USA; [299]Eastern Hlth, Turning Point, Melbourne, Vic, Australia; [300]Univ Bari, Bari, Italy; [301]Univ Bristol, Bristol, Avon, England; [302]Amer Canc Soc, Atlanta, GA 30329 USA; [303]Australian Natl Univ, Canberra, ACT, Australia; [304]Aintree Univ Hosp NHS Fdn Trust, Liverpool, Merseyside, England; [305]Swansea Univ, Swansea, W Glam, Wales; [306]Minist Hlth Singapore, Singapore, Singapore; [307]Natl Univ Singapore, Saw Swee Hock Sch Publ Hlth, Singapore 117548, Singapore; [308]Royal Childrens Hosp, Murdoch Childrens Res Inst, Melbourne, Vic, Australia; [309]Royal Childrens Hosp, Melbourne, Vic, Australia; [310]Shariati Hosp, Digest Dis Reseach Inst, Tehran, Iran; [311]Shiraz Univ Med Scinces, Shiraz, Iran; [312]Queen Mary Univ London, London, England; [313]Univ Penn, Pereleman Sch Med, Philadelphia, PA 19104 USA; [314]Univ Penn, Philadelphia, PA 19104 USA; [315]Univ East Ramon Magsaysay Mem, Med Ctr, Quezon City, Philippines; [316]Elmhurst Hosp Ctr, Mt Sinai Serv, Elmhurst, NY USA; [317]Minist Publ Hlth, Kabul, Afghanistan; [318]AIDC EC, Port Elizabeth, South Africa; [319]Royal Prince Alfred Hosp, Camperdown, NSW 2050, Australia; [320]Childrens Hosp Philadelphia, Philadelphia, PA 19104 USA; [321]Janakpuri Superspecialty Hosp, New Delhi, India; [322]Mekelle Univ, Mekelle, Ethiopia; [323]Thomas Jefferson Univ, Philadelphia, PA 19107 USA; [324]Saudi Minist Hlth, Riyadh, Saudi Arabia; [325]Univ Helsinki, Cent Hosp, Dept Neurol, Helsinki, Finland; [326]Ifakara Hlth Inst, Bagamoyo, Tanzania; [327]Pacific Inst Res & Evaluat, Calverton, MD USA; [328]Curtin Univ, Ctr Populat Hlth, Perth, WA 6845, Australia; [329]Univ Ottawa, Ottawa, ON, Canada; [330]Univ Kebangsaan Malaysia, Med Ctr, Dept Med, Bandar Tun Razak, Malaysia; [331]Univ Salahaddin, Erbil, Iraq; [332]Univ Papua New Guinea, Boroko, Papua N Guinea; [333]IRCCS Burlo Garofolo, Inst Maternal & Child Hlth, Trieste, Italy; [334]Univ N Texas, Denton, TX 76203 USA; [335]Iran Univ Med Sci, Dept Community Med, Tehran, Iran; [336]Natl Ctr Child Hlth & Dev, Setagaya Ku, Tokyo, Japan; [337]Univ Crete, Dept Med, Iraklion, Greece; [338]Univ Crete, Iraklion, Greece; [339]Egerton Univ, Egerton, Kenya; [340]Univ Marburg, Marburg, Germany; [341]Okinawa Chubu Hosp, Okinawa, Japan; [342]West Herts Hosp NHS Trust, Watford, England; [343]Univ KwaZulu Natal, Durban, South Africa; [344]Azienda Osped Papa Giovanni XXIII, Bergamo, Italy; [345]Minist Hlth, Suva, Fiji; [346]Suraj Eye Inst, Nagpur, Maharashtra, India; [347]Fac Med, Fes, Morocco; [348]Univ Oslo, Oslo, Norway; [349]Minist Hlth & Social Welf, Dar Es Salaam, Tanzania; [350]Charite, D-13353 Berlin, Germany; [351]Deakin Univ, Melbourne, Vic, Australia; [352]Univ Bergen, Dept Global Publ Hlth & Primary Care, Bergen, Norway; [353]Univ Bergen, Bergen, Norway; [354]Queensland Univ Technol, Inst Hlth & Biomed Innovat, Brisbane, Qld 4001, Australia; [355]Lund Univ, Dept Clin Sci, Lund, Sweden; [356]Makerere Univ, Kampala, Uganda; [357]Kyung Hee Univ, Seoul, South Korea; [358]Teikyo Univ, Sch Med, Tokyo 173, Japan; [359]Ctr Hlth Start Initiat, Ikoyi, Nigeria; [360]Lira Municipal Council, Lira Dist Local Govt, Lira, Uganda; [361]IIS Fdn Jimenez Diaz, Madrid, Spain; [362]Christian Med Coll Ludhiana, Ludhiana, Punjab, India; [363]Kosin Univ, Coll Med, Busan, South Korea; [364]Sungkyunkwan Univ, Sch Med, Suwon, South Korea; [365]Univ Porto, Fac Farm, Dept Quim, REQUIMTE LAQV,Lab Farmacognosia, P-4100 Oporto, Portugal; [366]Natl Inst Resp Dis, Mexico City, DF, Mexico; [367]Hopsital Univ Cruces, OSI EE Cruces, Baracaldo, Spain; [368]Biocruces Hlth Res Inst, Baracaldo, Spain; [369]Mario Negri Inst Pharmacol Res, Ranica, Italy; [370]Postgrad Med Inst, Lahore, Pakistan; [371]Flinders Univ S Australia, Adelaide, SA 5001, Australia; [372]Aalborg Univ, Aalborg Esst, Denmark; [373]Hlth Metr Unit, Gothenburg, Sweden; [374]Univ Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, South Africa; [375]Shanghai Jiao Tong Univ, Sch Med, Shanghai 200030, Peoples R China; [376]Emory Univ, Atlanta, GA 30322 USA; [377]Fed Environm Agcy, Sect Exposure Assessment & Environm Hlth Indicato, Berlin, Germany; [378]McGill Univ, Montreal Childrens Hosp, Montreal, PQ H3H 1P3, Canada; [379]MyungSung Med Coll, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia; [380]Ctr Addict & Mental Hlth CAMH, Toronto, ON, Canada; [381]Fred Hollows Fdn, Sydney, NSW, Australia; [382]Univ Illinois, Chicago, IL USA; [383]Contech Int Hlth Consultants, Lahore, Pakistan; [384]Hamad Med Corp, Doha, Qatar; [385]Univ Missouri, Columbia, MO USA; [386]Contech Sch Publ Hlth, Lahore, Pakistan; [387]Ctr Dis Anal, Louisville, CO USA; [388]Suez Canal Univ, Ismailia, Egypt; [389]IRCCS Mario Negri Inst Pharmacol Res, Centro Anna Maria Astori, Bergamo, Italy; [390]Int Hlth & Dev, Geneva, Switzerland; [391]Univ Fed Minas Gerais, Hosp Clin, Belo Horizonte, MG, Brazil; [392]Ctr Res Environm Epidemiol CREAL, Barcelona, Spain; [393]Univ Ulm, Inst Epidemiol & Med Biometry, D-89069 Ulm, Germany; [394]Ann & Robert H Lurie Childrens Hosp Chicago, Chicago, IL USA; [395]HBNI Univ, BARC Hosp, Bombay, Maharashtra, India; [396]Muhimbili Univ Hlth & Allied Sci, Dar Es Salaam, Tanzania; [397]Queensland Ctr Mental Hlth Res, Pk Ctr Mental Hlth, Brisbane, Qld, Australia; [398]Case Western Reserve Univ, Cleveland, OH 44106 USA; [399]Chicago Med Sch, Canc Treatment Ctr Amer RFU, N Chicago, IL USA; [400]Marshall Univ, Huntington, WV USA; [401]Univ Fed Santa Catarina, Florianopolis, SC, Brazil; [402]Univ Alabama Birmingham, Birmingham, AL USA; [403]Univ Stellenbosch, Cape Town, South Africa; [404]An Najah Univ, Nablus, Israel; [405]Tufts Med Ctr, Boston, MA USA; [406]Univ Pittsburgh, Med Ctr, Pittsburgh, PA USA; [407]Tachikawa Hosp, Tokyo, Japan; [408]Finnish Inst Occupat Hlth, Helsinki, Finland; [409]Washington State Univ, Spokane, WA USA; [410]Northumbria Univ, Newcastle Upon Tyne NE1 8ST, Tyne & Wear, England; [411]Univ Edinburgh, Alzheimers Scotland Dementia Res Ctr, Edinburgh, Midlothian, Scotland; [412]Reykjavik Univ, Reykjavik, Iceland; [413]Int Inst Populat Sci, Bombay, Maharashtra, India; [414]Dartmouth Coll, Lebanon, NH 03756 USA; [415]Stavanger Univ Hosp, Stavanger, Norway; [416]Minist Hlth Russian Federat, Fed Res Inst Hlth Org & Informat, Moscow, Russia; [417]Univ Western Ontario, Dept Clin Neurol Sci, London, ON, Canada; [418]Univ Tunku Abdul Rahman, Fac Med & Hlth Sci, Kajang, Cheras, Malaysia; [419]Attikon Univ Hosp, Athens, Greece; [420]Norwegian Univ Sci & Technol, Dept Neurosci, N-7034 Trondheim, Norway; [421]Norwegian Univ Sci & Technol, N-7034 Trondheim, Norway; [422]St Olavs Hosp, Norwegian Advisory Unit Headache, Trondheim, Norway; [423]Alexandra Gen Hosp Athens, Athens, Greece; [424]Ctr Hosp Publ Cotentin, Cherbourg, France; [425]Natl Inst Res TB, Madras, Tamil Nadu, India; [426]Northwestern Univ, Chicago, IL 60611 USA; [427]Univ Calif Irvine, Irvine, CA USA; [428]Univ Illinois, Champaign, IL USA; [429]Chaim Sheba Med Ctr, IL-52621 Tel Hashomer, Israel; [430]Tel Aviv Univ, IL-69978 Tel Aviv, Israel; [431]Westchester Med Ctr, Valhalla, NY USA; [432]Netherlands Inst Mental Hlth & Addict, Utrecht, Netherlands; [433]Mem Univ Newfoundland, St John, NF, Canada; [434]Univ Virginia, Dept Anesthesiol, Charlottesville, VA USA; [435]Outcomes Res Consortium, Cleveland, OH USA; [436]King Fahad Med City, Dept Anesthesiol, Riyadh, Saudi Arabia; [437]WorldFish, George Town, Malaysia; [438]Aristotle Univ Thessaloniki, GR-54006 Thessaloniki, Greece; [439]Anjo Kosei Hosp, Hlth Care Ctr, Anjo City, Japan; [440]Univ Southern Santa Catarina, Palhoca, Brazil; [441]Johns Hopkins Univ, Baltimore, MD USA; [442]Hanoi Med Univ, Hanoi 100803, Vietnam; [443]Univ Copenhagen, Rigshosp, Dept Neurol, DK-2100 Copenhagen, Denmark; [444]Cleveland Clin, Cleveland, OH 44106 USA; [445]Dept Vet Affairs, Washington, DC USA; [446]Fed Teaching Hosp, Dept Internal Med, Abakaliki, Nigeria; [447]Netherlands Leprosy Relief, Amsterdam, Netherlands; [448]African Populat & Hlth Res Ctr, Nariobi, Kenya; [449]Natl Inst Publ Hlth & Environm, NL-3720 BA Bilthoven, Netherlands; [450]Maastricht Univ, Med Ctr, NL-6200 MD Maastricht, Netherlands; [451]UKK Inst Hlth Promot Res, Tampere, Finland; [452]Raffles Hosp, Neurosci Ctr, Singapore, Singapore; [453]Univ Bologna, Bologna, Italy; [454]Higher Sch Econ, Moscow, Russia; [455]Natl Inst Occupat Safety & Hlth, Washington, DC USA; [456]Uniformed Serv Univ Hlth Sci, Bethesda, MD 20814 USA; [457]Chinese Acad Med Sci, Inst Basic Med Sci, Beijing 100730, Peoples R China; [458]Chinese Acad Med Sci, Inst Canc, Beijing 100021, Peoples R China; [459]Minist Hlth Indonesia, NIHRD, Jakarta, Indonesia; [460]Hlth Canada, Ottawa, ON K1A 0L2, Canada; [461]Beijing Neurosurg Inst, Beijing, Peoples R China; [462]Inst Med Sociol & Social Med, Marburg, Germany; [463]Fed Inst Populat Res, Wiesbaden, Germany; [464]German Natl Cohort Consortium, Heidelberg, Germany; [465]Wayne State Univ, Detroit, MI USA; [466]Royal Cornwall Hosp, Truro, England; [467]Nanjing Univ, Sch Med, Nanjing 210008, Jiangsu, Peoples R China; [468]Duke Kunshan Univ, Kunshan, Peoples R China; [469]Jichi Med Sch, Simotsuke, Tochigi, Japan; [470]Univ Hong Kong, Hong Kong, Hong Kong, Peoples R China; [471]Natl Ctr Neurol & Psychiat, Kodaira, Tokyo, Japan; [472]Korea Univ, Seoul, South Korea; [473]Jackson State Univ, Jackson, MS USA; [474]Sch Publ Hlth, Wuhan, Peoples R China; [475]Wuhan Univ, Global Hlth Inst, Wuhan 430072, Peoples R China; [476]Mansoura Fac Med, Mansoura, Egypt; [477]Chongqing Med Univ, Chongqing, Peoples R China; [478]Inst Hlth Metr & Evaluat, 2301 5th Ave,Suite 600, Seattle, WA 98121 USA
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Background The Global Burden of Disease Study 2013 (GBD 2013) aims to bring together all available epidemiological data using a coherent measurement framework, standardised estimation methods, and transparent data sources to enable comparisons of health loss over time and across causes, age-sex groups, and countries. The GBD can be used to generate summary measures such as disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) and healthy life expectancy (HALE) that make possible comparative assessments of broad epidemiological patterns across countries and time. These summary measures can also be used to quantify the component of variation in epidemiology that is related to sociodemographic development. Methods We used the published GBD 2013 data for age-specific mortality, years of life lost due to premature mortality (YLLs), and years lived with disability (YLDs) to calculate DALYs and HALE for 1990, 1995, 2000, 2005, 2010, and 2013 for 188 countries. We calculated HALE using the Sullivan method; 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) represent uncertainty in age-specific death rates and YLDs per person for each country, age, sex, and year. We estimated DALYs for 306 causes for each country as the sum of YLLs and YLDs; 95% UIs represent uncertainty in YLL and YLD rates. We quantified patterns of the epidemiological transition with a composite indicator of sociodemographic status, which we constructed from income per person, average years of schooling after age 15 years, and the total fertility rate and mean age of the population. We applied hierarchical regression to DALY rates by cause across countries to decompose variance related to the sociodemographic status variable, country, and time. Findings Worldwide, from 1990 to 2013, life expectancy at birth rose by 6.2 years (95% UI 5.6-6.6), from 65.3 years (65.0-65.6) in 1990 to 71.5 years (71.0-71.9) in 2013, HALE at birth rose by 5.4 years (4.9-5.8), from 56.9 years (54.5-59.1) to 62.3 years (59.7-64.8), total DALYs fell by 3.6% (0.3-7.4), and age-standardised DALY rates per 100 000 people fell by 26.7% (24.6-29.1). For communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional disorders, global DALY numbers, crude rates, and age-standardised rates have all declined between 1990 and 2013, whereas for non-communicable diseases, global DALYs have been increasing, DALY rates have remained nearly constant, and age-standardised DALY rates declined during the same period. From 2005 to 2013, the number of DALYs increased for most specific non-communicable diseases, including cardiovascular diseases and neoplasms, in addition to dengue, food-borne trematodes, and leishmaniasis; DALYs decreased for nearly all other causes. By 2013, the five leading causes of DALYs were ischaemic heart disease, lower respiratory infections, cerebrovascular disease, low back and neck pain, and road injuries. Sociodemographic status explained more than 50% of the variance between countries and over time for diarrhoea, lower respiratory infections, and other common infectious diseases; maternal disorders; neonatal disorders; nutritional deficiencies; other communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional diseases; musculoskeletal disorders; and other non-communicable diseases. However, sociodemographic status explained less than 10% of the variance in DALY rates for cardiovascular diseases; chronic respiratory diseases; cirrhosis; diabetes, urogenital, blood, and endocrine diseases; unintentional injuries; and self-harm and interpersonal violence. Predictably, increased sociodemographic status was associated with a shift in burden from YLLs to YLDs, driven by declines in YLLs and increases in YLDs from musculoskeletal disorders, neurological disorders, and mental and substance use disorders. In most country-specific estimates, the increase in life expectancy was greater than that in HALE. Leading causes of DALYs are highly variable across countries. Interpretation Global health is improving. Population growth and ageing have driven up numbers of DALYs, but crude rates have remained relatively constant, showing that progress in health does not mean fewer demands on health systems. The notion of an epidemiological transition-in which increasing sociodemographic status brings structured change in disease burden-is useful, but there is tremendous variation in burden of disease that is not associated with sociodemographic status. This further underscores the need for country-specific assessments of DALYs and HALE to appropriately inform health policy decisions and attendant actions.

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出版当年[2014]版:
大类 | 1 区 医学
小类 | 1 区 医学:内科
最新[2023]版:
大类 | 1 区 医学
小类 | 1 区 医学:内科
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出版当年[2013]版:
Q1 MEDICINE, GENERAL & INTERNAL
最新[2023]版:
Q1 MEDICINE, GENERAL & INTERNAL

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第一作者机构: [1]Univ Washington, Inst Hlth Metr & Evaluat, Seattle, WA 98121 USA;
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通讯机构: [1]Univ Washington, Inst Hlth Metr & Evaluat, Seattle, WA 98121 USA; [478]Inst Hlth Metr & Evaluat, 2301 5th Ave,Suite 600, Seattle, WA 98121 USA
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