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Risk score to predict gastrointestinal bleeding after acute ischemic stroke

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机构: [1]Capital Med Univ, Tiantan Hosp, Tiantan Comprehens Stroke Ctr, Beijing 100050, Peoples R China; [2]Univ N Carolina, Dept Stat & Operat Res, Chapel Hill, NC USA; [3]Massachusetts Gen Hosp, Dept Neurol, Boston, MA 02114 USA; [4]Capital Med Univ, Tiantan Hosp, Tiantan Comprehens Stroke Ctr, 6 Tiantanxili, Beijing 100050, Peoples R China
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Background: Gastrointestinal bleeding (GIB) is a common and often serious complication after stroke. Although several risk factors for post-stroke GIB have been identified, no reliable or validated scoring system is currently available to predict GIB after acute stroke in routine clinical practice or clinical trials. In the present study, we aimed to develop and validate a risk model (acute ischemic stroke associated gastrointestinal bleeding score, the AIS-GIB score) to predict in-hospital GIB after acute ischemic stroke. Methods: The AIS-GIB score was developed from data in the China National Stroke Registry (CNSR). Eligible patients in the CNSR were randomly divided into derivation (60%) and internal validation (40%) cohorts. External validation was performed using data from the prospective Chinese Intracranial Atherosclerosis Study (CICAS). Independent predictors of in-hospital GIB were obtained using multivariable logistic regression in the derivation cohort, and beta-coefficients were used to generate point scoring system for the AIS-GIB. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) and the Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test were used to assess model discrimination and calibration, respectively. Results: A total of 8,820, 5,882, and 2,938 patients were enrolled in the derivation, internal validation and external validation cohorts. The overall in-hospital GIB after AIS was 2.6%, 2.3%, and 1.5% in the derivation, internal, and external validation cohort, respectively. An 18-point AIS-GIB score was developed from the set of independent predictors of GIB including age, gender, history of hypertension, hepatic cirrhosis, peptic ulcer or previous GIB, pre-stroke dependence, admission National Institutes of Health stroke scale score, Glasgow Coma Scale score and stroke subtype (Oxfordshire). The AIS-GIB score showed good discrimination in the derivation (0.79; 95% CI, 0.764-0.825), internal (0.78; 95% CI, 0.74-0.82) and external (0.76; 95% CI, 0.71-0.82) validation cohorts. The AIS-GIB score was well calibrated in the derivation (P = 0.42), internal (P = 0.45) and external (P = 0.86) validation cohorts. Conclusion: The AIS-GIB score is a valid clinical grading scale to predict in-hospital GIB after AIS. Further studies on the effect of the AIS-GIB score on reducing GIB and improving outcome after AIS are warranted.

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出版当年[2013]版:
大类 | 3 区 医学
小类 | 4 区 胃肠肝病学
最新[2023]版:
大类 | 3 区 医学
小类 | 4 区 胃肠肝病学
JCR分区:
出版当年[2012]版:
Q3 GASTROENTEROLOGY & HEPATOLOGY
最新[2023]版:
Q2 GASTROENTEROLOGY & HEPATOLOGY Q3 GASTROENTEROLOGY & HEPATOLOGY

影响因子: 最新[2023版] 最新五年平均 出版当年[2012版] 出版当年五年平均 出版前一年[2011版] 出版后一年[2013版]

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第一作者机构: [1]Capital Med Univ, Tiantan Hosp, Tiantan Comprehens Stroke Ctr, Beijing 100050, Peoples R China;
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通讯机构: [1]Capital Med Univ, Tiantan Hosp, Tiantan Comprehens Stroke Ctr, Beijing 100050, Peoples R China; [4]Capital Med Univ, Tiantan Hosp, Tiantan Comprehens Stroke Ctr, 6 Tiantanxili, Beijing 100050, Peoples R China
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