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A novel risk score to predict 1-year functional outcome after intracerebral hemorrhage and comparison with existing scores

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机构: [1]Capital Med Univ, Beijing Tiantan Hosp, Tiantan Comprehens Stroke Ctr, Beijing 100050, Peoples R China; [2]Univ N Carolina, Dept Stat & Operat Res, Chapel Hill, NC USA; [3]Capital Med Univ, Beijing Tiantan Hosp, Tiantan Comprehens Stroke Ctr, 6 Tiantanxili, Beijing 100050, Peoples R China
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Introduction: Spontaneous intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH) is one of leading causes of mortality and morbidity worldwide. Several predictive models have been developed for ICH; however, none of them have been consistently used in routine clinical practice or clinical research. In the study, we aimed to develop and validate a risk score for predicting 1-year functional outcome after ICH (ICH Functional Outcome Score, ICH-FOS). Furthermore, we compared discrimination of the ICH-FOS and 8 existing ICH scores with regard to 30-day, 3-month, 6-month, and 1-year functional outcome and mortality after ICH. Methods: The ICH-FOS was developed based on the China National Stroke Registry, in which eligible patients were randomly divided into derivation (60%) and validation (40%) cohorts. Poor functional outcome was defined as modified Rankin Scale score (mRS) >= 3 at 1 year after ICH. Multivariable logistic regression was performed to determine independent predictors, and beta-coefficients were used to generate scoring system of the ICH-FOS. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) and Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test were used to assess model discrimination and calibration. Results: The overall 1-year poor functional outcome (mRS >= 3) was 46.7% and 44.9% in the derivation (n = 1,953) and validation (n = 1,302) cohorts, respectively. A 16-point ICH-FOS was developed from the set of independent predictors of 1-year poor functional outcome after ICH including age (P <0.001), admission National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale score (P <0.001), Glasgow Coma Scale score (P <0.001), blood glucose (P = 0.002), ICH location (P <0.001), hematoma volume (P <0.001), and intraventricular extension (P <0.001). The ICH-FOS showed good discrimination (AUROC) in the derivation (0.836, 95% CI: 0.819-0.854) and validation (0.830, 95% CI: 0.808-0.852) cohorts. The ICH-FOS was well calibrated (Hosmer-Lemeshow test) in the derivation (P = 0.42) and validation (P = 0.39) cohort. When compared to 8 prior ICH scores, the ICH-FOS showed significantly better discrimination with regard to 1-year functional outcome and mortality after ICH (all P <0.0001). Meanwhile, the ICH-FOS also demonstrated either comparable or significantly better discrimination for poor functional outcome and mortality at 30-day, 3-month, and 6-month after ICH. Conclusion: The ICH-FOS is a valid clinical grading scale for 1-year functional outcome after ICH. Further validation of the ICH-FOS in different populations is needed.

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出版当年[2012]版:
大类 | 2 区 医学
小类 | 2 区 危重病医学
最新[2023]版:
大类 | 1 区 医学
小类 | 2 区 危重病医学
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出版当年[2011]版:
Q1 CRITICAL CARE MEDICINE
最新[2023]版:
Q1 CRITICAL CARE MEDICINE

影响因子: 最新[2023版] 最新五年平均 出版当年[2011版] 出版当年五年平均 出版前一年[2010版] 出版后一年[2012版]

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第一作者机构: [1]Capital Med Univ, Beijing Tiantan Hosp, Tiantan Comprehens Stroke Ctr, Beijing 100050, Peoples R China;
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通讯机构: [1]Capital Med Univ, Beijing Tiantan Hosp, Tiantan Comprehens Stroke Ctr, Beijing 100050, Peoples R China; [3]Capital Med Univ, Beijing Tiantan Hosp, Tiantan Comprehens Stroke Ctr, 6 Tiantanxili, Beijing 100050, Peoples R China
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