Introduction: Spontaneous intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH) is one of leading causes of mortality and morbidity worldwide. Several predictive models have been developed for ICH; however, none of them have been consistently used in routine clinical practice or clinical research. In the study, we aimed to develop and validate a risk score for predicting 1-year functional outcome after ICH (ICH Functional Outcome Score, ICH-FOS). Furthermore, we compared discrimination of the ICH-FOS and 8 existing ICH scores with regard to 30-day, 3-month, 6-month, and 1-year functional outcome and mortality after ICH. Methods: The ICH-FOS was developed based on the China National Stroke Registry, in which eligible patients were randomly divided into derivation (60%) and validation (40%) cohorts. Poor functional outcome was defined as modified Rankin Scale score (mRS) >= 3 at 1 year after ICH. Multivariable logistic regression was performed to determine independent predictors, and beta-coefficients were used to generate scoring system of the ICH-FOS. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) and Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test were used to assess model discrimination and calibration. Results: The overall 1-year poor functional outcome (mRS >= 3) was 46.7% and 44.9% in the derivation (n = 1,953) and validation (n = 1,302) cohorts, respectively. A 16-point ICH-FOS was developed from the set of independent predictors of 1-year poor functional outcome after ICH including age (P <0.001), admission National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale score (P <0.001), Glasgow Coma Scale score (P <0.001), blood glucose (P = 0.002), ICH location (P <0.001), hematoma volume (P <0.001), and intraventricular extension (P <0.001). The ICH-FOS showed good discrimination (AUROC) in the derivation (0.836, 95% CI: 0.819-0.854) and validation (0.830, 95% CI: 0.808-0.852) cohorts. The ICH-FOS was well calibrated (Hosmer-Lemeshow test) in the derivation (P = 0.42) and validation (P = 0.39) cohort. When compared to 8 prior ICH scores, the ICH-FOS showed significantly better discrimination with regard to 1-year functional outcome and mortality after ICH (all P <0.0001). Meanwhile, the ICH-FOS also demonstrated either comparable or significantly better discrimination for poor functional outcome and mortality at 30-day, 3-month, and 6-month after ICH. Conclusion: The ICH-FOS is a valid clinical grading scale for 1-year functional outcome after ICH. Further validation of the ICH-FOS in different populations is needed.
基金:
Ministry of Science and TechnologyMinistry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology, Japan (MEXT) [2006BA101A11]; Ministry of Health of the People's Republic of China [2009CB521905]
第一作者机构:[1]Capital Med Univ, Beijing Tiantan Hosp, Tiantan Comprehens Stroke Ctr, Beijing 100050, Peoples R China;
通讯作者:
通讯机构:[1]Capital Med Univ, Beijing Tiantan Hosp, Tiantan Comprehens Stroke Ctr, Beijing 100050, Peoples R China;[3]Capital Med Univ, Beijing Tiantan Hosp, Tiantan Comprehens Stroke Ctr, 6 Tiantanxili, Beijing 100050, Peoples R China
推荐引用方式(GB/T 7714):
Ji Ruijun,Shen Haipeng,Pan Yuesong,et al.A novel risk score to predict 1-year functional outcome after intracerebral hemorrhage and comparison with existing scores[J].CRITICAL CARE.2013,17(6):-.doi:10.1186/cc13130.
APA:
Ji, Ruijun,Shen, Haipeng,Pan, Yuesong,Wang, Penglian,Liu, Gaifen...&Wang, Yongjun.(2013).A novel risk score to predict 1-year functional outcome after intracerebral hemorrhage and comparison with existing scores.CRITICAL CARE,17,(6)
MLA:
Ji, Ruijun,et al."A novel risk score to predict 1-year functional outcome after intracerebral hemorrhage and comparison with existing scores".CRITICAL CARE 17..6(2013):-