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Years lived with disability (YLDs) for 1160 sequelae of 289 diseases and injuries 1990-2010: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010

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机构: [1]Univ Queensland, Queensland Ctr Mental Hlth Res, Brisbane, Qld, Australia; [2]Univ Queensland, Sch Populat Hlth, Brisbane, Qld, Australia; [3]Univ Queensland, Clin Res Ctr, Brisbane, Qld, Australia; [4]Univ Queensland, Queensland Brain Inst, Brisbane, Qld, Australia; [5]Univ Washington, Inst Hlth Metr & Evaluat, Seattle, WA 98121 USA; [6]Univ Washington, Sch Publ Hlth, Dept Epidemiol, Seattle, WA 98121 USA; [7]Univ Washington, Dept Anesthesiol & Pain Med, Seattle, WA 98121 USA; [8]China Med Board, Boston, MA USA; [9]Univ London Imperial Coll Sci Technol & Med, Sch Publ Hlth, Dept Epidemiol & Biostat, MRC HPA Ctr Environm & Hlth, London, England; [10]Univ Tokyo, Dept Global Hlth Policy, Tokyo, Japan; [11]Harvard Univ, Dept Biostat, Boston, MA 02115 USA; [12]Harvard Univ, Sch Publ Hlth, Boston, MA 02115 USA; [13]Harvard Univ, Dept Epidemiol, Boston, MA 02115 USA; [14]Harvard Univ, Harvard Humanitarian Initiat, Boston, MA 02115 USA; [15]Harvard Univ, Boston Childrens Hosp, Boston, MA 02115 USA; [16]Harvard Univ, Brigham & Womens Hosp, Boston, MA 02115 USA; [17]Harvard Univ, Harvard Med Sch, Boston, MA 02115 USA; [18]Dupuytren Univ Hosp, Dept Cardiol, Limoges, France; [19]Univ Texas San Antonio, San Antonio, TX USA; [20]Univ Melbourne, Ctr Int Child Hlth, Melbourne, Vic, Australia; [21]Univ Melbourne, Dept Paediat, Melbourne, Vic, Australia; [22]Univ Melbourne, Ctr Hlth Policy Programs & Econ, Melbourne, Vic, Australia; [23]Univ Melbourne, Sch Populat Hlth, Melbourne, Vic, Australia; [24]Sanjay Gandhi Postgrad Inst Med Sci, Lucknow, Uttar Pradesh, India; [25]Emory Univ, Sch Publ Hlth, Atlanta, GA USA; [26]Emory Univ, Sch Med, Atlanta, GA USA; [27]St Georges Univ London, London, England; [28]Mayo Clin, Rochester, MN USA; [29]Univ Auckland, Auckland 1, New Zealand; [30]Pontificia Univ Javeriana, Sch Engn, Dept Ind Engn, Bogota, Colombia; [31]Yale Univ, New Haven, CT USA; [32]Boston Univ, Sch Med, Boston, MA 02118 USA; [33]Univ Oxford, Clin Trial Serv Unit, Oxford, England; [34]Univ Oxford, Epidemiol Studies Unit, Oxford, England; [35]Kings Coll London, Inst Dent, London WC2R 2LS, England; [36]Kings Coll London, Hosp NHS Trust, London WC2R 2LS, England; [37]Kings Coll London, Inst Psychiat, London WC2R 2LS, England; [38]Queen Mary Univ London, Inst Dent, London, England; [39]Moscow State Univ Med & Dent, Res Inst Transplantol & Artificial Organs, Moscow, Russia; [40]King Fahad Med City, Riyadh, Saudi Arabia; [41]Michigan State Univ, E Lansing, MI 48824 USA; [42]MRC, Epidemiol Unit, Cambridge, England; [43]London Sch Hyg & Trop Med, London WC1, England; [44]Univ Sydney, No Clin Sch, Dept Rheumatol, Sydney, NSW 2006, Australia; [45]Univ Sydney, Fac Hlth Sci, Sydney, NSW 2006, Australia; [46]Univ Sydney, Inst Bone & Joint Res, Sydney, NSW 2006, Australia; [47]Univ Sydney, Sydney Sch Publ Hlth, Sydney, NSW 2006, Australia; [48]INSERM, Paris, France; [49]Univ New S Wales, Natl Drug & Alcohol Res Ctr, Sydney, NSW, Australia; [50]Univ New S Wales, Sydney, NSW, Australia; [51]Anglia Ruskin Univ, Vis & Eye Res Unit, Cambridge, England; [52]Moorfields Eye Hosp, London, England; [53]Univ Cambridge, Cambridge, England; [54]Univ Leicester, Leicester, Leics, England; [55]Flinders Univ S Australia, Adelaide, SA 5001, Australia; [56]Cabrini Inst, Malvern, Vic, Australia; [57]Monash Univ, Dept Epidemiol & Prevent Med, Melbourne, Vic 3004, Australia; [58]Johns Hopkins Univ, Bloomberg Sch Publ Hlth, Baltimore, MD USA; [59]Texas A&M Univ, College Stn, TX USA; [60]Great Ormond St Hosp Sick Children, London WC1N 3JH, England; [61]Washington Univ, St Louis, MO USA; [62]Univ Oklahoma, Hlth Sci Ctr, Oklahoma City, OK USA; [63]Univ Western Australia, Telethon Inst Child Hlth Res, Ctr Child Hlth Res, Perth, WA 6009, Australia; [64]Univ Camilo Jose Cela, Villanueva De La Canada, Spain; [65]Mario Negri Inst Pharmacol Res, I-24100 Bergamo, Italy; [66]NIEHS, Res Triangle Pk, NC 27709 USA; [67]Acad Sinica, Inst Biomed Sci, Taipei, Taiwan; [68]Cedars Sinai Med Ctr, Inst Heart, Los Angeles, CA 90048 USA; [69]Univ Med Ctr Rotterdam, Dept Publ Hlth, Erasmus MC, Rotterdam, Netherlands; [70]Menzies Sch Hlth Res, Darwin, NT, Australia; [71]Natl Hlth Serv, Edinburgh, Midlothian, Scotland; [72]Univ Edinburgh, Edinburgh, Midlothian, Scotland; [73]Univ Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, South Africa; [74]Loyola Univ, Sch Med, Chicago, IL 60611 USA; [75]Wake Forest Univ, Sch Publ Hlth Sci, Winston Salem, NC 27109 USA; [76]Hosp Dr Gustavo N Collado, Puerto Chitre, Panama; [77]Victorian Infect Dis Reference Lab, Melbourne, Vic, Australia; [78]Univ Calif San Diego, San Diego, CA 92103 USA; [79]Univ Penn, Philadelphia, PA 19104 USA; [80]Bldg & Rd Res Inst, Kumasi, Ghana; [81]MRC Hearing & Commun Grp, Manchester, Lancs, England; [82]Griffith Univ, Sch Dent & Oral Hlth, Brisbane, Qld 4111, Australia; [83]Griffith Univ, Populat & Social Hlth Res Program, Brisbane, Qld 4111, Australia; [84]Denver VA Med Ctr, Denver, CO USA; [85]Univ Otago, Dunedin, New Zealand; [86]Beth Israel Deaconess Med Ctr, New York, NY 10003 USA; [87]Univ Peradeniya, Peradeniya, Sri Lanka; [88]Univ Liverpool, Liverpool L69 3BX, Merseyside, England; [89]Hosp Santa Creu & Sant Pau, Barcelona, Spain; [90]Univ Ulster, Ulster, Ireland; [91]Fed Minist Hlth, Khartoum, Sudan; [92]Hosp Maciel, Montevideo, Uruguay; [93]Emerald Publ Hlth Consulting Serv Ltd, Abuja, Nigeria; [94]Univ Tehran Med Sci, Digest Dis Res Ctr, Tehran, Iran; [95]Auckland Tech Univ, Natl Inst Stroke & Appl Neurosci, Auckland, New Zealand; [96]Univ Fed Sao Paulo, Sch Med, Sao Paulo, Brazil; [97]Carnegie Mellon Univ, Pittsburgh, PA 15213 USA; [98]Royal Life Saving Soc, Sydney, NSW, Australia; [99]James Cook Univ, Townsville, Qld 4811, Australia; [100]Howard Univ, Coll Med, Washington, DC USA; [101]Addict Info Switzerland, Lausanne, Switzerland; [102]Univ Calif San Francisco, Dept Epidemiol & Biostat, San Francisco, CA 94143 USA; [103]Suny Downstate Med Ctr, Coll Med, Brooklyn, NY 11203 USA; [104]Ctr Dis Control & Prevent, Natl Ctr Injury Prevent & Control, Atlanta, GA USA; [105]Univ Lorraine, Nancy, France; [106]Univ Bristol, Bristol, Avon, England; [107]NYU, New York, NY USA; [108]Brandeis Univ, Waltham, MA USA; [109]Univ Barcelona, CIBERSAM, St Bio De Llobregat, Spain; [110]Karolinska Univ Hosp, Stockholm, Sweden; [111]Queen Elizabeth Hosp, Adelaide, SA, Australia; [112]Univ Franche Comte, F-25030 Besancon, France; [113]Ctr Hosp Reg Univ Besancon, Besancon, France; [114]NIDCD, NIH, Bethesda, MD USA; [115]Baylor Coll Med, Natl Sch Trop Med, Waco, TX USA; [116]Univ Port Harcourt, Port Harcourt, Nigeria; [117]George Mason Univ, Fairfax, VA 22030 USA; [118]Heidelberg Univ, Med Fac Mannheim, Dept Ophthalmol, Heidelberg, Germany; [119]All India Inst Med Sci, New Delhi, India; [120]Hebrew Univ Jerusalem, Hadassah Med Sch, Dept Cardiol, IL-91010 Jerusalem, Israel; [121]Case Western Reserve Univ, Cleveland, OH 44106 USA; [122]Makerere Univ, Sch Publ Hlth, Kampala, Uganda; [123]Univ S Africa, Johannesburg, South Africa; [124]Kwame Nkrumah Univ Sci & Technol, Kumasi, Ghana; [125]Univ Tasmania, Hobart, Tas 7001, Australia; [126]Nova SE Univ, Ft Lauderdale, FL 33314 USA; [127]Univ Miami, Miller Sch Med, Miami, FL 33136 USA; [128]Swansea Univ, Swansea, W Glam, Wales; [129]China Ctr Dis Control, Natl Ctr Noncommunicable Dis Control & Prevent, Beijing, Peoples R China; [130]Mulago Hosp, Kampala, Uganda; [131]Asian Pacific Soc Cardiol, Kyoto, Japan; [132]MRC, Tygerberg, South Africa; [133]Univ Cape Town, Hatter Inst, ZA-7925 Cape Town, South Africa; [134]Univ Cape Town, Dept Med, ZA-7925 Cape Town, South Africa; [135]Legacy Hlth Syst, Portland, OR USA; [136]Northwestern Univ, Feinberg Sch Med, Evanston, IL USA; [137]Natl Inst Psychiat Ramon de la Fuente, Mexico City, DF, Mexico; [138]Thomas Jefferson Univ, Philadelphia, PA 19107 USA; [139]Pacific Inst Res & Evaluat, Calverton, MD USA; [140]Natl Inst Hlth, Maputo, Mozambique; [141]Univ Eduardo Mondlane, Maputo, Mozambique; [142]Duke Univ, Durham, NC USA; [143]IRCCS Burlo Garofolo, Inst Maternal & Child Hlth, Trieste, Italy; [144]Columbia Univ, Mailman Sch Publ Hlth, New York, NY USA; [145]Queensland Univ Technol, Brisbane, Qld 4001, Australia; [146]Natl Ctr Child Hlth & Dev, Tokyo, Japan; [147]Watford Dist Gen Hosp, Watford, England; [148]Kemri Wellcome Trust, Kilifi, Kenya; [149]Univ KwaZulu Natal, AVRI, Durban, South Africa; [150]Ctr Studi GISED, Bergamo, Italy; [151]Charite, D-13353 Berlin, Germany; [152]Natl Univ Ireland Galway, HRB Clin Res Facil, Galway, Ireland; [153]Deakin Univ, Melbourne, Vic, Australia; [154]BP Koirala Inst Hlth Sci, Dharan, Nepal; [155]Betty Cowan Res & Innovat Ctr, Ludhiana, Punjab, India; [156]Hosp Joan 23, La Paz, Bolivia; [157]Univ Calgary, Calgary, AB, Canada; [158]Inst Nacl Enfermedades Resp, Mexico City, DF, Mexico; [159]Hosp Univ Cruces, Baracaldo, Spain; [160]Shanghai Jiao Tong Univ, Sch Med, Shanghai Mental Hlth Ctr, Shanghai 200030, Peoples R China; [161]Shanghai Jiao Tong Univ, Sch Publ Hlth, Shanghai 200030, Peoples R China; [162]Brigham Young Univ, Provo, UT 84602 USA; [163]Ctr Addict & Mental Hlth, Toronto, ON, Canada; [164]Hosp Univ Canarias, Tenerif, Spain; [165]Univ British Columbia, Fac Med, Sch Populat & Publ Hlth, Vancouver, BC, Canada; [166]Vector Control Res Ctr, Pondicherry, India; [167]Ctr Dis Anal, Louisville, CO USA; [168]Univ Calif Berkeley, Berkeley, CA 94720 USA; [169]Univ Chicago, NORC, Chicago, IL 60637 USA; [170]Complejo Hosp Caja Seguro Social, Panama City, Panama; [171]Turning Point Alcohol & Drug Ctr, Ctr Alcohol Policy Res, Fitzroy, SA, Australia; [172]Vanderbilt Univ, Nashville, TN USA; [173]Univ Alabama Birmingham, Birmingham, AL USA; [174]Minist Interior, Madrid, Spain; [175]Hlth Canada, Ottawa, ON K1A 0L2, Canada; [176]Queens Med Ctr, Honolulu, HI USA; [177]Norwegian Univ Sci & Technol, Dept Neurosci, N-7034 Trondheim, Norway; [178]Agwa Khan Univ, Karachi, Pakistan; [179]Drexel Univ, Sch Publ Hlth, Philadelphia, PA 19104 USA; [180]Univ Alberta, Alberta Kidney Dis Network, Edmonton, AB, Canada; [181]Cincinnati Childrens Hosp, Cincinnati, OH USA; [182]Copenhagen Univ Hosp, Dept Neurol, Herlev, Denmark; [183]Univ Crete, Sch Med, Iraklion, Greece; [184]ANLIS, Inst Nacl Epidemiol, Malbran, Argentina; [185]KNCV TB Fdn, The Hague, Netherlands; [186]Maastricht Univ Med Ctr, Maastricht, Netherlands; [187]Natl Univ Singapore, Singapore 117548, Singapore; [188]Capital Med Univ, Beijing Neurosurg Inst, Beijing, Peoples R China; [189]Brown Univ, Providence, RI 02912 USA; [190]Royal Childrens Hosp, Melbourne, Vic, Australia; [191]Murdoch Childrens Res Inst, Melbourne, Vic, Australia; [192]Univ Nottingham, Nottingham NG7 2RD, England; [193]Univ Western Sydney, Campbelltown, NSW, Australia; [194]Arthrit Res, Wichita, KS USA; [195]Royal Cornwall Hosp, Truro, England; [196]London Sch Econ, London WC2A 2AE, England; [197]Landstuhl Reg Med Ctr, Landstuhl, Germany; [198]NIDDK, NIH, Bethesda, MD USA; [199]Univ Washington, Inst Hlth Metr & Evaluat, 2301 5th Ave,Suite 600, Seattle, WA 98121 USA
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Background Non-fatal health outcomes from diseases and injuries are a crucial consideration in the promotion and monitoring of individual and population health. The Global Burden of Disease (GBD) studies done in 1990 and 2000 have been the only studies to quantify non-fatal health outcomes across an exhaustive set of disorders at the global and regional level. Neither effort quantified uncertainty in prevalence or years lived with disability (YLDs). Methods Of the 291 diseases and injuries in the GBD cause list, 289 cause disability. For 1160 sequelae of the 289 diseases and injuries, we undertook a systematic analysis of prevalence, incidence, remission, duration, and excess mortality. Sources included published studies, case notification, population-based cancer registries, other disease registries, antenatal clinic serosurveillance, hospital discharge data, ambulatory care data, household surveys, other surveys, and cohort studies. For most sequelae, we used a Bayesian meta-regression method, DisMod-MR, designed to address key limitations in descriptive epidemiological data, including missing data, inconsistency, and large methodological variation between data sources. For some disorders, we used natural history models, geospatial models, back-calculation models (models calculating incidence from population mortality rates and case fatality), or registration completeness models (models adjusting for incomplete registration with health-system access and other covariates). Disability weights for 220 unique health states were used to capture the severity of health loss. YLDs by cause at age, sex, country, and year levels were adjusted for comorbidity with simulation methods. We included uncertainty estimates at all stages of the analysis. Findings Global prevalence for all ages combined in 2010 across the 1160 sequelae ranged from fewer than one case per 1 million people to 350 000 cases per 1 million people. Prevalence and severity of health loss were weakly correlated (correlation coefficient -0.37). In 2010, there were 777 million YLDs from all causes, up from 583 million in 1990. The main contributors to global YLDs were mental and behavioural disorders, musculoskeletal disorders, and diabetes or endocrine diseases. The leading specific causes of YLDs were much the same in 2010 as they were in 1990: low back pain, major depressive disorder, iron-deficiency anaemia, neck pain, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, anxiety disorders, migraine, diabetes, and falls. Age-specific prevalence of YLDs increased with age in all regions and has decreased slightly from 1990 to 2010. Regional patterns of the leading causes of YLDs were more similar compared with years of life lost due to premature mortality. Neglected tropical diseases, HIV/AIDS, tuberculosis, malaria, and anaemia were important causes of YLDs in sub-Saharan Africa. Interpretation Rates of YLDs per 100 000 people have remained largely constant over time but rise steadily with age. Population growth and ageing have increased YLD numbers and crude rates over the past two decades. Prevalences of the most common causes of YLDs, such as mental and behavioural disorders and musculoskeletal disorders, have not decreased. Health systems will need to address the needs of the rising numbers of individuals with a range of disorders that largely cause disability but not mortality. Quantification of the burden of non-fatal health outcomes will be crucial to understand how well health systems are responding to these challenges. Effective and affordable strategies to deal with this rising burden are an urgent priority for health systems in most parts of the world.

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出版当年[2011]版:
大类 | 1 区 医学
小类 | 1 区 医学:内科
最新[2023]版:
大类 | 1 区 医学
小类 | 1 区 医学:内科
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出版当年[2010]版:
Q1 MEDICINE, GENERAL & INTERNAL
最新[2023]版:
Q1 MEDICINE, GENERAL & INTERNAL

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第一作者:
第一作者机构: [2]Univ Queensland, Sch Populat Hlth, Brisbane, Qld, Australia;
通讯作者:
通讯机构: [5]Univ Washington, Inst Hlth Metr & Evaluat, Seattle, WA 98121 USA; [199]Univ Washington, Inst Hlth Metr & Evaluat, 2301 5th Ave,Suite 600, Seattle, WA 98121 USA
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