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A risk score for carotid plaque as an assessment risk of cardiovascular risk among patients with hypertension

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机构: [a]Department of Community Health Research, Beijing Institute of Heart Lung and Blood Vessel Diseases, Beijing Anzhen Hospital, Capital Medical University, Beijing, China [b]Department of Cardiology, Beijing Anzhen Hospital, Capital Medical University, Beijing, China [c]Department of General Practice, Beijing Anzhen Hospital, Capital Medical University, Beijing, China Manuscript received July 20, 2018 and accepted November 4, 2018
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关键词: Atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease carotid plaque risk score

摘要:
This study aimed to describe the status of carotid plaques and develop a simple scoring system to predict the risk of carotid lesions in patients with hypertension. Basic testing for carotid plaques was carried out and used for risk score development (the training dataset, n = 2665) and validation (the test dataset, n = 1333). Independent predictors of carotid plaques from the multivariate model were assigned integer weights based on their coefficients and incorporated into a risk score. The discriminant ability of the score was tested by receiver operating characteristic analysis using the test dataset. A total of 1346 of 2665 patients were examined for carotid plaques, which were more frequent in men than in women, and increased with age. The final model included eight significant variables, and these variables were then used to develop a risk score for the prediction of carotid plaques. Receiver operating characteristic analysis demonstrated good discriminant power with a C-statistic of 0.732 (95% confidence interval: 0.713-0.751) and good calibration across quantiles of observed predicted risk (74.6%). We developed a simple risk score for the prediction of carotid plaques based on eight variables. The prediction model showed good discriminant power and calibration. (C) 2018 American Heart Association. All rights reserved.

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出版当年[2017]版:
大类 | 3 区 医学
小类 | 3 区 外周血管病
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出版当年[2016]版:
Q2 PERIPHERAL VASCULAR DISEASE
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第一作者机构: [a]Department of Community Health Research, Beijing Institute of Heart Lung and Blood Vessel Diseases, Beijing Anzhen Hospital, Capital Medical University, Beijing, China [*1]Beijing Anzhen Hospital, Capital Medical University, Beijing Institute of Heart Lung and Blood Vessel Diseases, No.2 Road Anzhenli, Chaoyang District, 100029 Beijing, China.
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通讯机构: [a]Department of Community Health Research, Beijing Institute of Heart Lung and Blood Vessel Diseases, Beijing Anzhen Hospital, Capital Medical University, Beijing, China [*1]Beijing Anzhen Hospital, Capital Medical University, Beijing Institute of Heart Lung and Blood Vessel Diseases, No.2 Road Anzhenli, Chaoyang District, 100029 Beijing, China.
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