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Lifetime risk of stroke in young-aged andmiddle-aged Chinese population: the Chinese Multi-Provincial Cohort Study

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机构: [1]Capital Med Univ, Beijing Inst Heart Lung & Blood Vessel Dis, Dept Epidemiol,Beijing An Zhen Hosp, Key Lab Remodeling Related Cardiovasc Dis,Minist, 2 Anzhen Rd, Beijing 100029, Peoples R China
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关键词: blood pressure lifetime risk risk assessment stroke

摘要:
Objective: Stroke is a major cause of premature death in China. Early prevention of stroke requires a more effective method to differentiate the stroke risk among young-aged and middle-aged individuals than the 10-year risk of cardiovascular disease. This study aimed to establish a lifetime stroke risk model and risk charts for the young-aged and middle-aged population in China. Methods: The Chinese Multi-Provincial Cohort Study participants (n = 21 953) aged 35-84 years without cardiovascular disease at baseline were followed for 18 years (263 016 person-years). Modified Kaplan-Meier method was used to estimate the mean lifetime stroke risk up to age of 80 years and the lifetime stroke risk according to major stroke risk factors for the population aged 35-60 years. Results: A total of 917 participants developed first-ever strokes. For the participants aged 35-40 years (98 stroke cases), the lifetime stroke risk was 18.0 and 14.7% in men and women, respectively. Blood pressure most effectively discriminated the lifetime stroke risk. The lifetime risk of stroke for the individuals with all risk factors optimal was 8-10 times lower compared with those with two or more high risk factors at age 35-60 years at baseline. Conclusion: In young-aged and middle-aged population, the lifetime stroke risk will keep very low if major risk factors especially blood pressure level is at optimal levels, but the risk substantially increases even with a slight elevation of major risk factors, which could not be identified using 10-year risk estimation.

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中科院(CAS)分区:
出版当年[2015]版:
大类 | 2 区 医学
小类 | 2 区 外周血管病
最新[2023]版:
大类 | 2 区 医学
小类 | 3 区 外周血管病
JCR分区:
出版当年[2014]版:
Q1 PERIPHERAL VASCULAR DISEASE
最新[2023]版:
Q1 PERIPHERAL VASCULAR DISEASE

影响因子: 最新[2023版] 最新五年平均 出版当年[2014版] 出版当年五年平均 出版前一年[2013版] 出版后一年[2015版]

第一作者:
第一作者机构: [1]Capital Med Univ, Beijing Inst Heart Lung & Blood Vessel Dis, Dept Epidemiol,Beijing An Zhen Hosp, Key Lab Remodeling Related Cardiovasc Dis,Minist, 2 Anzhen Rd, Beijing 100029, Peoples R China
通讯作者:
通讯机构: [1]Capital Med Univ, Beijing Inst Heart Lung & Blood Vessel Dis, Dept Epidemiol,Beijing An Zhen Hosp, Key Lab Remodeling Related Cardiovasc Dis,Minist, 2 Anzhen Rd, Beijing 100029, Peoples R China
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