机构:[1]Department of Nephrology, Xuanwu Hospital, Capital Medical University, Beijing, China内科系统肾科首都医科大学宣武医院[2]Department of General Practice, Xuanwu Hospital,Capital Medical University, Beijing, China首都医科大学宣武医院[3]Administrative Office, Central Hospital of Cangzhou, Cangzhou, China[4]Department of Life Sciences,National Natural Science Foundation of China, Beijing, China
Several severity scales have been documented to predict the short-term mortality of septic patients. However, the predictive efficacies of different severity scales in the long-term mortality of the elderly have yet to be evaluated.
In the retrospective study, a cohort of 4,370 elderly (≥65 years) septic patients admitted to the intensive care unit (ICU) were divided into three different age groups, i.e., the younger-old group (65 years ≤ age <75 years), the older-old group (75 years ≤ age <85 years) and the oldest-old group (age ≥85 years). Five scales, including the Simplified Acute Physiology Score II (SAPS II), the Oxford Acute Severity of Illness Score (OASIS), the Modified Logistic Organ Dysfunction System (MLODS), the Systemic Inflammatory Response Syndrome (SIRS) and Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA), were used for disease severity evaluations. The Kaplan-Meier survival curve, and the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) were used to assess prognostic values of the long-term mortality of each severity scale.
Compared with patients in the oldest-old group, those in the younger-old and the older-old groups had higher scores of SAPS II and OASIS, indicating more serious illness and worse prognosis. The survival time of patients was inversely related to age; the mean survival time was the longest in the youngerold group, followed by the older-old group and the oldest-old group. SAPS II had the best prognostic value (AUC: 0.648 for SAPS II, 0.579 for MLODS, 0.577 for SOFA, 0.612 for OASIS and 0.515 for SIRS, P<0.01) for the 4-year all-cause mortality. Elderly patients with an SAPS II score >43 had a lower survival rate regardless of age.
The long-term mortality of elderly patients with sepsis is increased with age. SAPS II can better predict the long-term prognosis of elderly septic patients in ICU.
基金:
The study was supported by grants from Wu Jieping Medical Foundation Clinical Research Funding (No.320.6750.16050), Beijing Excellent Talents Foundation (No. 2018000020124G144), National Natural Science Foundation of China Youth Program (No. 81900655) and General Projects of Science and Technology Plan of Beijing Municipal Commission of Education (No. KM202010025022).
第一作者机构:[1]Department of Nephrology, Xuanwu Hospital, Capital Medical University, Beijing, China[*1]Department of Nephrology, Xuanwu Hospital, Capital Medical University, Changchun Street 45#, Beijing 100053, China.
通讯作者:
通讯机构:[*1]Department of Nephrology, Xuanwu Hospital, Capital Medical University, Changchun Street 45#, Beijing 100053, China.[*2]Administrative Office, Central Hospital of Cangzhou, Xinhua Middle Street 201#, 061001, Cangzhou, Hebei Province, China[*3]Department of Life Sciences, National Natural Science Foundation of China, Shuangqing Road 83#, 100085, Beijing, China
推荐引用方式(GB/T 7714):
Jia Linpei,Hao Lixiao,Li Xiaoxia,et al.Comparing the predictive values of five scales for 4-year all-cause mortality in critically ill elderly patients with sepsis.[J].ANNALS OF PALLIATIVE MEDICINE.2021,10(3):2387-2397.doi:10.21037/apm-20-1355.
APA:
Jia Linpei,Hao Lixiao,Li Xiaoxia,Jia Rufu&Zhang Hong-Liang.(2021).Comparing the predictive values of five scales for 4-year all-cause mortality in critically ill elderly patients with sepsis..ANNALS OF PALLIATIVE MEDICINE,10,(3)
MLA:
Jia Linpei,et al."Comparing the predictive values of five scales for 4-year all-cause mortality in critically ill elderly patients with sepsis.".ANNALS OF PALLIATIVE MEDICINE 10..3(2021):2387-2397