Objective: This study aimed to develop a dynamic prevention and control method for fluctuating respiratory nosocomial infections in outpatients. Methods: Six sets of surveillance data such as influenza-like case counts and their predicted results were used in the autoregressive integrated moving average model (ARIMA) to forecast the onset and end time points of the epidemic peak. A Delphi process was then used to build consensus on hierarchical infection control measures for epidemic peaks and plateaus. The data, predicted results, and hierarchical infection control measures can assist dynamic prevention and control of respiratory nosocomial infections with changes in the infection risk. Results: The ARIMA model produced exact estimates. The mean absolute percentage errors (MAPE) of the data selected to estimate the time range of the high-risk and low-risk periods were 15.8%, 9.2%, 15.4%, 16.8%, 25.6%. The hierarchical infection control measures included three categories and nine key points. A risk-period judgment matrix was also designed to connect the surveillance data and the hierarchical infection control measures. Conclusion: Through a mathematical model, dynamic prevention and control of respiratory tract infections in outpatients was constructed based on the daily medical service monitoring data of hospitals. It is foreseeable that when applied in medical institutions, this method will provide accurate and low-cost infection prevention and control outcomes.
基金：
Beijing Qing Miao Talent Development Plan from Beijing Hospitals Authority [QML20230816]; Xuanwu Hospital Capital Medical University
语种：
外文
WOS：
PubmedID：
中科院(CAS)分区：
出版当年[2025]版：
大类|3 区医学
小类|4 区卫生保健与服务4 区卫生政策与服务
最新[2025]版：
大类|3 区医学
小类|4 区卫生保健与服务4 区卫生政策与服务
JCR分区：
出版当年[2023]版：
Q2HEALTH CARE SCIENCES & SERVICESQ2HEALTH POLICY & SERVICES
最新[2024]版：
Q3HEALTH CARE SCIENCES & SERVICESQ3HEALTH POLICY & SERVICES
第一作者机构：[1]Capital Med Univ, Hosp Infect Management Div, Xuanwu Hosp, 45 ChangChun St, Beijing 100053, Peoples R China
通讯作者：
推荐引用方式(GB/T 7714)：
Wang Yuncong,Ma Wenhui,Yang Yang,et al.Research on Dynamic Outpatient Respiratory Nosocomial Infection Control Methods Through Multi-Data Prediction[J].RISK MANAGEMENT AND HEALTHCARE POLICY.2025,18:1323-1332.doi:10.2147/RMHP.S508760.
APA：
Wang, Yuncong,Ma, Wenhui,Yang, Yang,Zhao, Huijie,Zhao, Zhongjing&Zhao, Xia.(2025).Research on Dynamic Outpatient Respiratory Nosocomial Infection Control Methods Through Multi-Data Prediction.RISK MANAGEMENT AND HEALTHCARE POLICY,18,
MLA：
Wang, Yuncong,et al."Research on Dynamic Outpatient Respiratory Nosocomial Infection Control Methods Through Multi-Data Prediction".RISK MANAGEMENT AND HEALTHCARE POLICY 18.(2025):1323-1332
