Objective This study aims to establish and validate a nomogram model for the all-cause mortality rate in patients with diabetic nephropathy (DN).Methods We analyzed data from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) spanning from 2007 to 2016. A random split of 7:3 was performed between the training and validation sets. Utilizing follow-up data until December 31, 2019, we examined the all-cause mortality rate. Cox regression models and Least Absolute Shrinkage and Selection Operator (LASSO) regression models were employed in the training cohort to develop a nomogram for predicting all-cause mortality in the studied population. Finally, various validation methods were employed to assess the predictive performance of the nomogram, and Decision Curve Analysis (DCA) was conducted to evaluate the clinical utility of the nomogram.Results After the results of LASSO regression models and Cox multivariate analyses, a total of 8 variables were selected, gender, age, poverty income ratio, heart failure, body mass index, albumin, blood urea nitrogen and serum uric acid. A nomogram model was built based on these predictors. The C-index values in training cohort of 3-year, 5-year, 10-year mortality rates were 0.820, 0.807, and 0.798. In the validation cohort, the C-index values of 3-year, 5-year, 10-year mortality rates were 0.773, 0.788, and 0.817, respectively. The calibration curve demonstrates satisfactory consistency between the two cohorts.Conclusion The newly developed nomogram proves to be effective in predicting the all-cause mortality risk in patients with diabetic nephropathy, and it has undergone robust internal validation.
基金:
This study was funded by the National Key Research and Development
Program of China (2022YFC3602400, 2022YFC3602404) and the National Key
Research and Development Program of China (No.2021YFC2500500). The
funders had no role in the design and conduct of the study, in the collection, analysis, and interpretation of the data, or in the preparation, review, or
approval of the manuscript.
第一作者机构:[1]Capital Med Univ, Xuanwu Hosp, Dept Vasc Surg, 45 Changchun St, Beijing, Peoples R China
通讯作者:
推荐引用方式(GB/T 7714):
Wu Sensen,Wang Hui,Pan Dikang,et al.Navigating the future of diabetes: innovative nomogram models for predicting all-cause mortality risk in diabetic nephropathy[J].BMC NEPHROLOGY.2024,25(1):doi:10.1186/s12882-024-03563-5.
APA:
Wu, Sensen,Wang, Hui,Pan, Dikang,Guo, Julong,Zhang, Fan...&Guo, Lianrui.(2024).Navigating the future of diabetes: innovative nomogram models for predicting all-cause mortality risk in diabetic nephropathy.BMC NEPHROLOGY,25,(1)
MLA:
Wu, Sensen,et al."Navigating the future of diabetes: innovative nomogram models for predicting all-cause mortality risk in diabetic nephropathy".BMC NEPHROLOGY 25..1(2024)