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A nomogram for endoscopic screening in a high esophageal squamous cell cancer risk area: results from a population-based study

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机构: [1]Department of Gastroenterology, Beijing Friendship Hospital, Capital Medical University, National Clinical Research Center for Digestive Disease, Beijing Digestive Disease Center, Beijing Key Laboratory for Precancerous Lesion of Digestive Disease, Beijing 100050, People’s Republic of China [2]Department of Gastroenterology, Jizhong Energy Fengfeng Group Hospital, Handan, Hebei 056200, People’s Republic of China [3]Department of Gastroenterology, Handan Central Hospital, Handan, Hebei 056001, People’s Republic of China [4]Department of Pathology, Beijing Friendship Hospital, Capital Medical University, Beijing 100050, People’s Republic of China [5]Department of Epidemiology, Beijing Tiantan Hospital, Capital Medical University, Beijing 100029, People’s Republic of China
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关键词: nomogram endoscopy screening ESCC population-based study

摘要:
Background: Endoscopy is the main approach used for esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC) screening, especially in high-risk areas. However, little consensus has been achieved in recent ESCC screening programs, and endoscopists have selected patients only by age and family history. Patients and methods: To generate a proper strategy for selecting an eligible population for endoscopic screening based on demographic factors, lifestyle, and eating habits, a total of 7,830 residents in an area with a high risk of ESCC were recruited for this study. All participants underwent endoscopic examinations that were conducted by experienced endoscopists. Risk factors for ESCC and other lesions were selected by univariate and multivariate logistic regressions. A nomogram for the prediction of ESCC and premalignant lesions was constructed, which included information on age, sex, occupation, labor intensity, income, and mining exposure. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis was performed to present the predictive accuracy of the nomograms. Results: The area under the curve (95% CI) was 0.749 (0.711-0.788) for this nomogram. By applying this nomogram, we could exclude 60% (4704/7830) of patients before endoscopy screening and detect all ESCC cases as well as most esophageal lesions in the remaining population. Conclusion: In conclusion, we provided a ready-to-use preclinical tool with the potential to select eligible people with high risk of ESCC for endoscopy screening.

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出版当年[2018]版:
大类 | 2 区 医学
小类 | 3 区 肿瘤学
最新[2023]版:
大类 | 4 区 医学
小类 | 4 区 肿瘤学
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出版当年[2017]版:
Q2 ONCOLOGY
最新[2023]版:
Q3 ONCOLOGY

影响因子: 最新[2023版] 最新五年平均 出版当年[2017版] 出版当年五年平均 出版前一年[2016版] 出版后一年[2018版]

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第一作者机构: [1]Department of Gastroenterology, Beijing Friendship Hospital, Capital Medical University, National Clinical Research Center for Digestive Disease, Beijing Digestive Disease Center, Beijing Key Laboratory for Precancerous Lesion of Digestive Disease, Beijing 100050, People’s Republic of China
通讯作者:
通讯机构: [1]Department of Gastroenterology, Beijing Friendship Hospital, Capital Medical University, National Clinical Research Center for Digestive Disease, Beijing Digestive Disease Center, Beijing Key Laboratory for Precancerous Lesion of Digestive Disease, Beijing 100050, People’s Republic of China [*1]Department of Gastroenterology, Beijing Friendship Hospital, Capital Medical University, National Clinical Research Center for Digestive Disease, Beijing Digestive Disease Center, Beijing Key Laboratory for Precancerous Lesion of Digestive Disease, 95 Yongan Road, Beijing 100050, People’s Republic of China
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