机构：[a]Department of Neurology, Tiantan Hospital, Capital Medical University, Beijing, China重点科室诊疗科室神经病学中心神经病学中心首都医科大学附属天坛医院[b]Department of rehabilitation medicine (Neurorehabilitation), Tiantan Hospital, Capital Medical University, Beijing, China首都医科大学附属天坛医院[c]China National Clinical Research Center for Neurological Diseases, Beijing, China[d]Center of Stroke, Beijing Institute for Brain Disorders, Beijing, China[e]Beijing Key Laboratory of Translational Medicine for Cerebrovascular Disease, Beijing, China[f]Beijing Key Laboratory of Brain Function Reconstruction, Beijing, China[g]Department of Neurology, Kangji Hospital, Hebei, China[h]Department of Ultrasonography, Kangji Hospital, Hebei, China[i]Department of Cardiology, Kangji Hospital, Hebei, China[j]Department of Endocrinology, Kangji Hospital, Hebei, China
Background and purpose: To develop and validate a risk model (Extracranial Carotid Artery Stenosis progression score, ECAS-PS) and to predict risk of ECAS progression. Methods: The ECAS-PS was developed based on the Renqiu Stroke Screening Study (RSSS), in which eligible participants were randomly divided into derivation (60%) and validation (40%) cohorts. ECAS at baseline and follow-up was diagosed by carotid duplex ultrasound according to the published criteria. ECAS progression was defined as an increase in ECAS to >= 50% for those with a baseline of <50% or as an increase to a higher category of stenosis if the baseline stenosis was >= 50%. Independent predictors of ECAS progression were obtained using multivariable logistic regression. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) and the Hosmer-Lemeshow test were used to assess model discrimination and calibration. Results: A total of 4111 participants were included and the mean age was 64.3. A total number of 29 (0.7%), 24 (0.6%) and 48 (1.2%) patients progressed during 2-year follow-up for left, right and bilateral (either left or right) carotid artery, respectively. The ECAS-PS was developed from a set of predictors of ECAS progression. The ECAS-PS demonstrated good discrimination in both the derivation and validation cohorts (AUROC range: 0.824-0.917). The Hosmer-Lemeshow tests of ECAS progression score were not significant in the derivation and validation cohorts (all P > 0.05). Conclusion: The ECAS progression score is a valid model for predicting the risk of ECAS progression. Further validation of the ECAS-PS in different populations and larger samples is warranted.
基金：
Health and Family Planning Commission of Hebei Province (China) [12276104D-90]; Nova Program of Beijing Science and Technology Commission [2008B30]; National Natural Science Foundation of ChinaNational Natural Science Foundation of China [81471208, 81641162]; Beijing high-level healthy human resource project [014-3-033]
第一作者机构：[a]Department of Neurology, Tiantan Hospital, Capital Medical University, Beijing, China[b]Department of rehabilitation medicine (Neurorehabilitation), Tiantan Hospital, Capital Medical University, Beijing, China[c]China National Clinical Research Center for Neurological Diseases, Beijing, China[d]Center of Stroke, Beijing Institute for Brain Disorders, Beijing, China[e]Beijing Key Laboratory of Translational Medicine for Cerebrovascular Disease, Beijing, China[f]Beijing Key Laboratory of Brain Function Reconstruction, Beijing, China[*1]Beijing Tiantan Hospital,Capital Medical University, No.6 Tiantanxili, Dongcheng District, Beijing 100050, China
通讯作者：
通讯机构：[a]Department of Neurology, Tiantan Hospital, Capital Medical University, Beijing, China[b]Department of rehabilitation medicine (Neurorehabilitation), Tiantan Hospital, Capital Medical University, Beijing, China[c]China National Clinical Research Center for Neurological Diseases, Beijing, China[d]Center of Stroke, Beijing Institute for Brain Disorders, Beijing, China[e]Beijing Key Laboratory of Translational Medicine for Cerebrovascular Disease, Beijing, China[f]Beijing Key Laboratory of Brain Function Reconstruction, Beijing, China[*1]Beijing Tiantan Hospital,Capital Medical University, No.6 Tiantanxili, Dongcheng District, Beijing 100050, China
推荐引用方式(GB/T 7714)：
Ruijun Ji,Kai Yu,Guoyang Li,et al.ECAS progression score: a web-based model to predict progression of extracranial carotid artery stenosis[J].NEUROLOGICAL RESEARCH.2019,41(5):456-465.doi:10.1080/01616412.2019.1576375.
APA：
Ruijun Ji,Kai Yu,Guoyang Li,Xinyu Liu,Yinglin Yan...&Dongliang Liu.(2019).ECAS progression score: a web-based model to predict progression of extracranial carotid artery stenosis.NEUROLOGICAL RESEARCH,41,(5)
MLA：
Ruijun Ji,et al."ECAS progression score: a web-based model to predict progression of extracranial carotid artery stenosis".NEUROLOGICAL RESEARCH 41..5(2019):456-465
