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Poor Performance of Stroke Prognostication Using Age and National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale-100 to Predict 3-and 12-month Outcomes of Ischemic Stroke in China National Stroke Registry

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机构: [1]Capital Med Univ, Beijing Tiantan Hosp, Dept Neurol, Beijing, Peoples R China; [2]China Natl Clin Res Ctr Neurol Dis NCRC ND, Beijing, Peoples R China; [3]Duke Univ, Med Ctr, Brain Injury Translat Res Ctr, Durham, NC 27708 USA; [4]6 Tiantanxili, Beijing 100050, Peoples R China
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关键词: SPAN-100 ischemic stroke outcome prognosis

摘要:
Background: Stroke Prognostication using Age and NIH (National Institutes of Health) Stroke Scale (SPAN)-100 is a simple and easy-to-use tool for assessing the outcomes of ischemic stroke after thrombolysis. To explore its application, we evaluated SPAN-100 ' s prognostic value in predicting 3- and 12-month outcomes in general ischemic stroke patients. Methods: We applied the SPAN-100 to ischemic stroke patients from the China National Stroke Registry. Poor outcome was defined as a modified Rankin Scale of 2-6. Discrimination of SPAN-100 was assessed by the area under the receiver-operator curves (AUC) and 95% confidence intervals (CI). We also performed an exploratory post hoc analysis of the performance of the SPAN index score using 80 as the cutoff point. Results: Among 11,894 ischemic stroke patients, 479 (4.0%) patients were SPAN-100 positive. The AUC of SPAN-100 for poor outcome was .54 (95% CI, .54-.54) at 3 months and .54 (95% CI, .54-.55) at 12 months, respectively. In the exploratory analysis, when 80 was used as the cutoff point of SPAN index score, the AUC for poor outcome was .66 (95% CI,.66-.67) at 3 months and .68 (95% CI,.67-.68) at 12 months, respectively. Conclusions: SPAN-100 suffered from low prediction power for 3- and 12-month outcomes of ischemic stroke in Chinese population. A cutoff point of 80 may improve the performance, but none of them had an AUC above the threshold of .8 required for use in individuals.

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出版当年[2013]版:
大类 | 4 区 医学
小类 | 4 区 神经科学 4 区 外周血管病
最新[2023]版:
大类 | 4 区 医学
小类 | 4 区 神经科学 4 区 外周血管病
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出版当年[2012]版:
Q3 NEUROSCIENCES Q3 PERIPHERAL VASCULAR DISEASE
最新[2023]版:
Q3 NEUROSCIENCES Q3 PERIPHERAL VASCULAR DISEASE

影响因子: 最新[2023版] 最新五年平均 出版当年[2012版] 出版当年五年平均 出版前一年[2011版] 出版后一年[2013版]

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第一作者机构: [1]Capital Med Univ, Beijing Tiantan Hosp, Dept Neurol, Beijing, Peoples R China; [2]China Natl Clin Res Ctr Neurol Dis NCRC ND, Beijing, Peoples R China;
通讯作者:
通讯机构: [1]Capital Med Univ, Beijing Tiantan Hosp, Dept Neurol, Beijing, Peoples R China; [2]China Natl Clin Res Ctr Neurol Dis NCRC ND, Beijing, Peoples R China; [4]6 Tiantanxili, Beijing 100050, Peoples R China
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