Poor Performance of Stroke Prognostication Using Age and National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale-100 to Predict 3-and 12-month Outcomes of Ischemic Stroke in China National Stroke Registry
Background: Stroke Prognostication using Age and NIH (National Institutes of Health) Stroke Scale (SPAN)-100 is a simple and easy-to-use tool for assessing the outcomes of ischemic stroke after thrombolysis. To explore its application, we evaluated SPAN-100 ' s prognostic value in predicting 3- and 12-month outcomes in general ischemic stroke patients. Methods: We applied the SPAN-100 to ischemic stroke patients from the China National Stroke Registry. Poor outcome was defined as a modified Rankin Scale of 2-6. Discrimination of SPAN-100 was assessed by the area under the receiver-operator curves (AUC) and 95% confidence intervals (CI). We also performed an exploratory post hoc analysis of the performance of the SPAN index score using 80 as the cutoff point. Results: Among 11,894 ischemic stroke patients, 479 (4.0%) patients were SPAN-100 positive. The AUC of SPAN-100 for poor outcome was .54 (95% CI, .54-.54) at 3 months and .54 (95% CI, .54-.55) at 12 months, respectively. In the exploratory analysis, when 80 was used as the cutoff point of SPAN index score, the AUC for poor outcome was .66 (95% CI,.66-.67) at 3 months and .68 (95% CI,.67-.68) at 12 months, respectively. Conclusions: SPAN-100 suffered from low prediction power for 3- and 12-month outcomes of ischemic stroke in Chinese population. A cutoff point of 80 may improve the performance, but none of them had an AUC above the threshold of .8 required for use in individuals.
基金:
Ministry of Science and Technology and the Ministry of Health of the People's Republic of China [2006BA101A11, 2009CB521905, 2013BAI09B03]; Beijing Institute for Brain Disorders [BIBD-PXM2013_014226_07_000084]
第一作者机构:[1]Capital Med Univ, Beijing Tiantan Hosp, Dept Neurol, Beijing, Peoples R China;[2]China Natl Clin Res Ctr Neurol Dis NCRC ND, Beijing, Peoples R China;
通讯作者:
通讯机构:[1]Capital Med Univ, Beijing Tiantan Hosp, Dept Neurol, Beijing, Peoples R China;[2]China Natl Clin Res Ctr Neurol Dis NCRC ND, Beijing, Peoples R China;[4]6 Tiantanxili, Beijing 100050, Peoples R China
推荐引用方式(GB/T 7714):
Pan Yuesong,Jing Jing,Zhang Runhua,et al.Poor Performance of Stroke Prognostication Using Age and National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale-100 to Predict 3-and 12-month Outcomes of Ischemic Stroke in China National Stroke Registry[J].JOURNAL OF STROKE & CEREBROVASCULAR DISEASES.2014,23(9):2335-2340.doi:10.1016/j.jstrokecerebrovasdis.2014.04.031.
APA:
Pan, Yuesong,Jing, Jing,Zhang, Runhua,Zhao, Xingquan,Liu, Liping...&Wang, Yongjun.(2014).Poor Performance of Stroke Prognostication Using Age and National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale-100 to Predict 3-and 12-month Outcomes of Ischemic Stroke in China National Stroke Registry.JOURNAL OF STROKE & CEREBROVASCULAR DISEASES,23,(9)
MLA:
Pan, Yuesong,et al."Poor Performance of Stroke Prognostication Using Age and National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale-100 to Predict 3-and 12-month Outcomes of Ischemic Stroke in China National Stroke Registry".JOURNAL OF STROKE & CEREBROVASCULAR DISEASES 23..9(2014):2335-2340