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External Validation of the ASTRAL Score to Predict 3-and 12-Month Functional Outcome in the China National Stroke Registry

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机构: [1]Capital Med Univ, Dept Neurol, Beijing Tiantan Hosp, Beijing, Peoples R China; [2]Univ Thessaly, Dept Med, Biopolis 41110, Larissa, Greece; [3]Univ Lausanne, CHU Vaudois, Lausanne, Switzerland; [4]Univ Illinois, Dept Neurol, Illinois Neurol Inst, OSF Healthcare Syst,Coll Med Peoria,Stroke Networ, Peoria, IL USA; [5]Inst Clin Evaluat Sci, Toronto, ON, Canada
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关键词: ASTRAL score China National Stroke Registry

摘要:
Background and Purpose-The ASTRAL score was recently introduced as a prognostic tool for acute ischemic stroke. It predicts 3-month outcome reliably in both the derivation and the validation European cohorts. We aimed to validate the ASTRAL score in a Chinese stroke population and moreover to explore its prognostic value to predict 12-month outcome. Methods-We applied the ASTRAL score to acute ischemic stroke patients admitted to 132 study sites of the China National Stroke Registry. Unfavorable outcome was assessed as a modified Rankin Scale score >2 at 3 and 12 months. Areas under the curve were calculated to quantify the prognostic value. Calibration was assessed by comparing predicted and observed probability of unfavorable outcome using Pearson correlation coefficient. Results-Among 3755 patients, 1473 (39.7%) had 3-month unfavorable outcome. Areas under the curve for 3 and 12 months were 0.82 and 0.81, respectively. There was high correlation between observed and expected probability of unfavorable 3- and 12-month outcome (Pearson correlation coefficient: 0.964 and 0.963, respectively). Conclusions-ASTRAL score is a reliable tool to predict unfavorable outcome at 3 and 12 months after acute ischemic stroke in the Chinese population. It is a useful tool that can be readily applied in clinical practice to risk-stratify acute stroke patients. (Stroke. 2013;44:1443-1445.)

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出版当年[2012]版:
大类 | 2 区 医学
小类 | 2 区 临床神经病学 2 区 外周血管病
最新[2023]版:
大类 | 1 区 医学
小类 | 1 区 临床神经病学 1 区 外周血管病
JCR分区:
出版当年[2011]版:
Q1 CLINICAL NEUROLOGY Q1 PERIPHERAL VASCULAR DISEASE
最新[2023]版:
Q1 CLINICAL NEUROLOGY Q1 PERIPHERAL VASCULAR DISEASE

影响因子: 最新[2023版] 最新五年平均 出版当年[2011版] 出版当年五年平均 出版前一年[2010版] 出版后一年[2012版]

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第一作者机构: [1]Capital Med Univ, Dept Neurol, Beijing Tiantan Hosp, Beijing, Peoples R China;
通讯作者:
通讯机构: [2]Univ Thessaly, Dept Med, Biopolis 41110, Larissa, Greece;
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