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Potential Cardiovascular and Total Mortality Benefits of Air Pollution Control in Urban China

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机构: [1]Peking Union Med Coll, Fuwai Hosp, Dept Epidemiol, State Key Lab Cardiovasc Dis, 167 Beilishi Rd, Beijing 100037, Peoples R China; [2]Chinese Acad Med Sci, Beijing, Peoples R China; [3]Natl Ctr Cardiovasc Dis, Beijing, Peoples R China; [4]Columbia Univ, Med Ctr, Div Gen Med, New York, NY USA; [5]Columbia Univ, Coll Phys & Surg, New York, NY USA; [6]Univ Calif San Francisco, Div Gen Med, San Francisco, CA 94143 USA; [7]Helmholtz Zentrum Munchen, German Res Ctr Environm Hlth, Munich, Germany; [8]Capital Med Univ, Beijing Anzhen Hosp, Dept Epidemiol, Beijing, Peoples R China; [9]Beijing Inst Heart Lung & Blood Vessel Dis, Beijing, Peoples R China; [10]Tulane Univ, Sch Publ Hlth & Trop Med, Dept Epidemiol, New Orleans, LA USA; [11]Tulane Univ, Sch Med, Dept Med, New Orleans, LA 70112 USA; [12]Columbia Univ, Mailman Sch Publ Hlth, Dept Environm Hlth Sci, New York, NY USA; [13]Chinese Acad Med Sci, Natl Ctr Cardiovasc Dis, 167 Beilishi Rd, Beijing 100037, Peoples R China
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关键词: air pollution cardiovascular diseases China computer modeling health benefits

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BACKGROUND: Outdoor air pollution ranks fourth among preventable causes of China's burden of disease. We hypothesized that the magnitude of health gains from air quality improvement in urban China could compare with achieving recommended blood pressure or smoking control goals. METHODS: The Cardiovascular Disease Policy Model. China projected coronary heart disease, stroke, and all-cause deaths in urban Chinese adults 35 to 84 years of age from 2017 to 2030 if recent air quality (particulate matter with aerodynamic diameter <= 2.5 mu m, PM2.5) and traditional cardiovascular risk factor trends continue. We projected life-years gained if urban China were to reach 1 of 3 air quality goals: Beijing Olympic Games level (mean PM2.5, 55 mu g/m(3)), China Class II standard (35 mu g/m(3)), or World Health Organization standard (10 mu g/m(3)). We compared projected air pollution reduction control benefits with potential benefits of reaching World Health Organization hypertension and tobacco control goals. RESULTS: Mean PM2.5 reduction to Beijing Olympic levels by 2030 would gain approximate to 241,000 (95% uncertainty interval, 189 000-293 000) life-years annually. Achieving either the China Class II or World Health Organization PM 2.5 standard would yield greater health benefits (992000 [95% uncertainty interval, 790000-1180000] or 1827000 [95% uncertainty interval, 148100-2129000] annual life-years gained, respectively) than World Health Organization-recommended goals of 25% improvement in systolic hypertension control and 30% reduction in smoking combined (928000 [95% uncertainty interval, 830000-1033000] life-years). CONCLUSIONS: Air quality improvement in different scenarios could lead to graded health benefits ranging from 241000 life-years gained to much greater benefits equal to or greater than the combined benefits of 25% improvement in systolic hypertension control and 30% smoking reduction.

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出版当年[2016]版:
大类 | 1 区 医学
小类 | 1 区 心脏和心血管系统 1 区 外周血管病
最新[2023]版:
大类 | 1 区 医学
小类 | 1 区 心脏和心血管系统 1 区 外周血管病
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出版当年[2015]版:
Q1 CARDIAC & CARDIOVASCULAR SYSTEMS Q1 PERIPHERAL VASCULAR DISEASE
最新[2023]版:
Q1 CARDIAC & CARDIOVASCULAR SYSTEMS Q1 PERIPHERAL VASCULAR DISEASE

影响因子: 最新[2023版] 最新五年平均 出版当年[2015版] 出版当年五年平均 出版前一年[2014版] 出版后一年[2016版]

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第一作者机构: [1]Peking Union Med Coll, Fuwai Hosp, Dept Epidemiol, State Key Lab Cardiovasc Dis, 167 Beilishi Rd, Beijing 100037, Peoples R China; [2]Chinese Acad Med Sci, Beijing, Peoples R China; [3]Natl Ctr Cardiovasc Dis, Beijing, Peoples R China;
通讯作者:
通讯机构: [1]Peking Union Med Coll, Fuwai Hosp, Dept Epidemiol, State Key Lab Cardiovasc Dis, 167 Beilishi Rd, Beijing 100037, Peoples R China; [2]Chinese Acad Med Sci, Beijing, Peoples R China; [3]Natl Ctr Cardiovasc Dis, Beijing, Peoples R China; [13]Chinese Acad Med Sci, Natl Ctr Cardiovasc Dis, 167 Beilishi Rd, Beijing 100037, Peoples R China
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