Background and Purpose-The iScore is a prediction tool developed to estimate the risk of death in patients after hospitalization for an acute ischemic stroke. Our aim was to determine the accuracy of the iScore in patients with ischemic stroke in China. Methods-The iScore was used to predict 30-day mortality rate in 11 656 patients and 1-year mortality rate in 11 051 patients with acute ischemic stroke. These patients were identified from the China National Stroke Registry (CNSR) data set. Model discrimination was quantified by calculating the C statistic. The calibration was assessed using Pearson correlation coefficient. Results-The 30-day and 1-year mortality rates were 5.4% and 14.3%, respectively. The C statistics were 0.825 (95% confidence interval, 0.807-0.843) for 30-day mortality and 0.822 (95% confidence interval, 0.810-0.833) for 1-year mortality. The plots of observed versus predicted mortality rates showed excellent model calibration in the external validation samples from the CNSR (Pearson correlation coefficient, 0.925 for 30-day and 0.998 for 1-year mortality; both P<0.0001). Conclusions-The iScore reliably predicts 30-day and 1-year mortality in Chinese patients with ischemic stroke.
基金:
Ministry of Science and TechnologyMinistry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology, Japan (MEXT); Ministry of Health of the People's Republic of China: National Science and Technology Major Project of China [2008ZX09312_008]; State Key Development Program of (for) Basic Research of ChinaNational Basic Research Program of ChinaState Key Development Program for Basic Research of China [2009CB521905]
第一作者机构:[1]Hebei Med Univ, Dept Neurol, Hosp 2, Shijiazhuang 050000, Hebei Province, Peoples R China;
通讯作者:
通讯机构:[1]Hebei Med Univ, Dept Neurol, Hosp 2, Shijiazhuang 050000, Hebei Province, Peoples R China;[4]Hebei Med Univ, Dept Neurol, Hosp 2, 215 Heping West Rd, Shijiazhuang 050000, Hebei Province, Peoples R China
推荐引用方式(GB/T 7714):
Zhang Ning,Liu Gaifen,Zhang Guohua,et al.External Validation of the iScore for Predicting Ischemic Stroke Mortality in Patients in China[J].STROKE.2013,44(7):1924-+.doi:10.1161/STROKEAHA.111.000172.
APA:
Zhang, Ning,Liu, Gaifen,Zhang, Guohua,Fang, Jiming,Wang, Yilong...&Wang, Yongjun.(2013).External Validation of the iScore for Predicting Ischemic Stroke Mortality in Patients in China.STROKE,44,(7)
MLA:
Zhang, Ning,et al."External Validation of the iScore for Predicting Ischemic Stroke Mortality in Patients in China".STROKE 44..7(2013):1924-+