机构：[1]Department of Neurology, The Second Hospital, Hebei Medical University, Shi Jiazhuang, Hebei Province, China[2]Department of Neurology, Beijing Tiantan Hospital, Capital Medical University, Beijing, China重点科室诊疗科室神经病学中心首都医科大学附属天坛医院[3]China National Clinical Research Center for Neurological Diseases, Beijing, China[4]Center of Stroke, Beijing Institute for Brain Disorders, Beijing, China[5]Beijing Key Laboratory of Translational Medicine for Cerebrovascular Disease, Beijing, China[6]Department of Endocrinology, The Fourth Hospital, Hebei Medical University, Shi Jiazhuang, Hebei Province, China.
Background: We aimed to externally validate the Get With the Guidelines (GWTG) risk model for all stroke types to predict in-hospital stroke mortality in Chinese patients and moreover to explore its prognostic value in predicting 3-month mortality after stroke. Methods: The prognostic model was applied to patients with acute stroke from China National Stroke Registry II (CNSR II) to predict in-hospital and 3-month mortality. Model discrimination was estimated by calculating c-statistic and 95% confidence intervals (CIs). Calibration was assessed by Pearson correlation coefficient and Hosmer-Lemeshow test. Results: Date from 21,684 stroke patients with complete data for in-hospital mortality prediction and 20,348 stroke patients with complete data for 3-month mortality prediction in the CNSR II were abstracted. The in-hospital and 3-month mortality were 1.4% and 5.6%, respectively. The c-statistics in the CNSR II were .86 (95% CI, .84-.88) and .83 (95% CI, .81-.84) for in-hospital and 3-month mortality, respectively. Calibration plot presented high correlation between the observed and predicted mortality rates (Pearson correlation coefficient, .996 for in-hospital and .998 for 3-month mortality; both P < .001). The Hosmer-Lemeshow statistics for the prediction of in-hospital and 3-month mortality were 0.21 and less than .001, respectively. The model performed nearly as well in each stroke type as in the overall model including all types. Conclusions: The GWTG risk model for all stroke types is a valid clinical tool to predict in-hospital and 3-month mortality in Chinese patients with acute stroke of any type.
基金：
Ministry of Science and Technology of the People's Republic of ChinaMinistry of Science and Technology, China [2011BAI08B02, 2012ZX09303, 2013BAI09B03]; Beijing Institute for Brain Disorders [BIBD-PXM2013_014226_07_000084]
第一作者机构：[1]Department of Neurology, The Second Hospital, Hebei Medical University, Shi Jiazhuang, Hebei Province, China
共同第一作者：
通讯作者：
通讯机构：[1]Department of Neurology, The Second Hospital, Hebei Medical University, Shi Jiazhuang, Hebei Province, China[2]Department of Neurology, Beijing Tiantan Hospital, Capital Medical University, Beijing, China[3]China National Clinical Research Center for Neurological Diseases, Beijing, China[4]Center of Stroke, Beijing Institute for Brain Disorders, Beijing, China[5]Beijing Key Laboratory of Translational Medicine for Cerebrovascular Disease, Beijing, China[*1]Department of Neurology, The Second Hospital, Hebei Medical University, No. 215 Heping West Rd, Shi Jiazhuang, Hebei Province, China[*2]Department of Neurology, Beijing Tiantan Hospital, Capital Medical University, Beijing, China.
推荐引用方式(GB/T 7714)：
Shichao Sun,Yuesong Pan,Lei Bai ,et al.GWTG Risk Model for All Stroke Types Predicts In-Hospital and 3-Month Mortality in Chinese Patients with Acute Stroke[J].JOURNAL OF STROKE & CEREBROVASCULAR DISEASES.2019,28(3):800-806.doi:10.1016/j.jstrokecerebrovasdis.2018.11.024.
APA：
Shichao Sun,Yuesong Pan,Lei Bai,,Xingquan Zhao,Liping Liu...&Yongjun Wang.(2019).GWTG Risk Model for All Stroke Types Predicts In-Hospital and 3-Month Mortality in Chinese Patients with Acute Stroke.JOURNAL OF STROKE & CEREBROVASCULAR DISEASES,28,(3)
MLA：
Shichao Sun,et al."GWTG Risk Model for All Stroke Types Predicts In-Hospital and 3-Month Mortality in Chinese Patients with Acute Stroke".JOURNAL OF STROKE & CEREBROVASCULAR DISEASES 28..3(2019):800-806
