Background and Purpose-There are few validated models for prediction of -in--hospital mortality after acute ischemic stroke. In 2010, Smith et al developed and internally validated models for predicting -in--hospital mortality based on Get With the GuidelinesStroke program data. We demonstrate the applicability of this Get With the Guidelines risk model in Chinese patients. Methods-The prognostic model was used to predict survival in 7015 patients with acute ischemic stroke from China National Stroke Registry data set. Model discrimination was quantified by calculating C statistic. To clarify the role of National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale (NIHSS), we also calculated the C statistics for NIHSS alone and for the model without NIHSS. Results-The C statistic was 0.867 (95% CI, 0.839-0.895) through the Get With the Guidelines risk model, suggesting good discrimination in the China National Stroke Registry. The model without NIHSS produced significantly lower C statistic (0.735; 95% CI, 0.701-0.770; P<0.001), indicating the important role of NIHSS in the prediction of survival. Furthermore, a model with NIHSS alone also provided significant discrimination (C statistic, 0.847; 95% CI, 0.816-0.879). A plot of observed versus predicted mortality showed excellent model calibration in the external validation sample from the China National Stroke Registry. Conclusions-The Get With the Guidelines risk model could correctly predict -in--hospital mortality in Chinese patients with ischemic stroke. In addition, the NIHSS provides substantial incremental information on a patient's -short--term mortality risk and is the strongest predictor of mortality. (Stroke. 2012; 43: 3108-3109.)
基金:
Ministry of Science and TechnologyMinistry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology, Japan (MEXT); Ministry of Health of the People's Republic of China: National Science and Technology Major Project of China [2008ZX09312_008]; State Key Development Program of (for) Basic Research of ChinaNational Basic Research Program of ChinaState Key Development Program for Basic Research of China [2009CB521905]
第一作者机构:[2]Hebei Med Univ, Hosp 2, Dept Neurol, Shijiazhuang, Hebei Province, Peoples R China;
通讯作者:
通讯机构:[1]Capital Med Univ, Beijing Tiantan Hosp, Dept Neurol, Beijing 100050, Peoples R China;[4]Capital Med Univ, Beijing Tiantan Hosp, Dept Neurol, 6 Tian Tan Xi Li, Beijing 100050, Peoples R China
推荐引用方式(GB/T 7714):
Zhang Ning,Liu Gaifen,Zhang Guohua,et al.A Risk Score Based on Get With the Guidelines-Stroke Program Data Works in Patients With Acute Ischemic Stroke in China[J].STROKE.2012,43(11):3108-U552.doi:10.1161/STROKEAHA.112.669085.
APA:
Zhang, Ning,Liu, Gaifen,Zhang, Guohua,Fang, Jiming,Wang, Yilong...&Wang, Yongjun.(2012).A Risk Score Based on Get With the Guidelines-Stroke Program Data Works in Patients With Acute Ischemic Stroke in China.STROKE,43,(11)
MLA:
Zhang, Ning,et al."A Risk Score Based on Get With the Guidelines-Stroke Program Data Works in Patients With Acute Ischemic Stroke in China".STROKE 43..11(2012):3108-U552