Background: Little is known about the predictive accuracy of the Essen Stroke Risk Score (ESRS) for Chinese stroke outpatients. Our goal was to perform an external validation of the ESRS using a large multicenter cohort of outpatients with ischemic stroke (IS). Methods: We estimated the 1-year cumulative event rates for both recurrent stroke and combined vascular events for patients in different ESRS categories using data from a prospective cohort of 3316 outpatients with IS admitted to 18 hospitals in China. In addition, we evaluated the predictive accuracy of the ESRS for both recurrent stroke and combined vascular events using C statistic. Results: In the nonatrial fibrillation IS outpatients, the cumulative 1-year event rate was 2.47% (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.97%-3.06%) for recurrent stroke and 4.32% (95% CI, 3.65%-5.06%) for combined vascular events. The event rates were significantly higher in patients in higher ESRS categories. The ESRS had a predictive accuracy of .63 (.57-.69) for recurrent stroke and .63 (.58-.68) for combined vascular events. Conclusion: Among the Chinese outpatients with IS, the ESRS was able to stratify the risk of both recurrent stroke and combined vascular events equally well. A prediction model suitable for Chinese IS populations is needed.
基金：
National Health and Family Planning Commission of the People's Republic of China [200902004]; Ministry of Science and Technology of the People's Republic of ChinaMinistry of Science and Technology, China [2011BAI08B02]; Sanofi ChinaSanofi-Aventis
第一作者机构：[1]Capital Med Univ, Beijing Tiantan Hosp, Dept Neurol, 6 Tiantanxili, Beijing 100050, Peoples R China;
通讯作者：
通讯机构：[1]Capital Med Univ, Beijing Tiantan Hosp, Dept Neurol, 6 Tiantanxili, Beijing 100050, Peoples R China;[2]Capital Med Univ, Sch Publ Hlth, Dept Epidemiol & Hlth Stat, Beijing, Peoples R China;[3]Capital Med Univ, Sch Publ Hlth, 10 Xitoutiao, Beijing 100069, Peoples R China
推荐引用方式(GB/T 7714)：
Chen Pan,Liu Yi,Wang Yilong,et al.A Validation of the Essen Stroke Risk Score in Outpatients with Ischemic Stroke[J].JOURNAL OF STROKE & CEREBROVASCULAR DISEASES.2016,25(9):2189-2195.doi:10.1016/j.jstrokecerebrovasdis.2016.02.001.
APA：
Chen, Pan,Liu, Yi,Wang, Yilong,Wang, Anxin,Zheng, Huaguang...&Wang, Yongjun.(2016).A Validation of the Essen Stroke Risk Score in Outpatients with Ischemic Stroke.JOURNAL OF STROKE & CEREBROVASCULAR DISEASES,25,(9)
MLA：
Chen, Pan,et al."A Validation of the Essen Stroke Risk Score in Outpatients with Ischemic Stroke".JOURNAL OF STROKE & CEREBROVASCULAR DISEASES 25..9(2016):2189-2195
